By Group Captain Praveer Purohit (retd)
During the Cold War, the world was bi-polar, with the USA and erstwhile USSR leading the two divergent and antagonistic power blocks. Europe was the main theatre where the geopolitical contestation was at its peak. The American led block formed NATO, an alliance that still exists and has grown in membership. The Soviet led block of communist countries was bound together by the Warsaw Pact that came into effect in 1955. Ironically, it was in the same city of Warsaw that the demise of this pact and communism in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) began. The Solidarity movement in Poland succeeded in forming a coalition government in 1989 marking the beginning of Poland’s change from a communist country to one that was ready to embrace democracy and market economy.
Notably, it set off a chain reaction of political upheavals in CEE and then USSR, culminating in the dissolution of the pact in 1991. The nature of geopolitics where nation-states forever jostle for more space to shape their choices and failure of communism to be a better alternative to democracy was evident. What was also evident was the great courage shown by the Polish people to seek and then force a change after a considerable struggle. For decades Poland was in the shadows of the USSR. How did it then lead to a change in CEE? A glimpse into Poland’s history provides some answers.
Poland was a notable power following its union with Lithuania into the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1569. At its peak, the territorial boundaries of this Commonwealth included present day Poland, Lithuania, Belarus, Latvia, large parts of Ukraine and Estonia, and part of present-day western Russia. A noteworthy feature of the Commonwealth was it codified the world’s second-oldest national constitution in modern history.Prussian, Austrian and Russian invasions in the eighteenth century gradually eroded the territories ultimately resulting in the demise of the Commonwealth in 1795. Poland had to wait till 1918 for independence.
This independence was short-lived. On 17 September 1939, the Soviet Union invaded Poland putting into action a secret clause in the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, it had signed with Nazi Germany. A few days earlier, Germany had invaded Poland. Thus, Poland was the first European country to face World War II and that too on two fronts- the western one against Germany and the eastern against the Soviet Union. Victimized by the brutality of Soviets and Nazis, the Polish people were subjected to exploitation through forced labour, mass killings, and eventual extermination in concentration camps.
The Soviets methodically deported the Polish populace into forced exile in distant parts of the USSR, that were characterized by a hostile climate. Even after the end of World War II, Poland had to endure de-facto Soviet control over its polity, society and economy for another 40 plus years. However, this period was marked by resistance from the Polish underground that had immense support of the populace.
Post the end of the Cold War, Poland was quick to embrace political and economic reforms, and greater integration with Western Europe. These measures resulted in impressive economic growth aided in no small measure by a resourceful and skilled domestic workforce. The Polish economy continued to expand and weathered the global financial crisis of 2008-09.It was the only European country whose economy did not slip into recession. Poland’s strength lies in its diversified economy, rather robust energy security (in comparison to Germany) and an ever-increasing quality of human resource. The Brookings Institute has stated that “every second young person studies at the university level, above the EU average, up from only one out of ten in 1989.” Future projections for Poland’s economy show promise. Poland is also blessed with a decent magnitude of natural resources such as lead, copper and zinc.
Polish understanding of European geo-politics and Russian expansion is astute. The Poles had unequivocally brought out the potential Russian revanchist tendencies following Vladimir Putin’s speech at the 2007 Munich Security Conference. Just a year later, in 2008, Georgia was invaded by the Russians. Poland had also presciently warned against the Nord Stream gas pipeline way back in 2004. In fact, the then Polish Defence Minister in 2006, even compared it to the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact. In a strange way and in different hues, history has repeated itself.
The Nord Stream pipeline is now an albatross around Germany’s neck and a tool of Russian economic coercion. The Poles were initially labelled as Russophobic by many in Europe and USA. However, as events in the last decade have unfolded in Europe, the Poles have been right on all counts- be it energy security and warning against energy dependence on Russia, or the destabilizing and threatening actions of Russia. NATO has found Polish expertise on the Russian government to be crucial in designing sanctions and for analyzing Russian war strategy.
The reader may wonder why Poland should be important for India? We share many similarities. Both have been subject to foreign occupation. Both countries were crucial in the Allied resistance in World War II. Free speech, liberal values, respect for sovereignty are other commonalities. Both countries had an overwhelming Russian (Soviet) influence on their defence and foreign policy for a long. They both have a nuclear power as a neighbour. Importantly, these nuclear powers that border Poland and India have demonstrated a visceral hatred towards democratic values and personal freedom, besides shamelessly invading/occupying territory of other sovereigns.
The intrinsic potential residing within citizens of India and Poland and the impressive economic growth of both are important commonalities that can enhance our ties. Both, India and Poland have a robust private sector and a watchful civil society. Just as Indo-US convergence is on a high, so is the US-Poland one. In Europe, it is Poland (and Ukraine) while in Asia it is India that has stood up against countries trying to forcibly change borders. Just as Poland’s engagement with NATO has been mutually beneficial, so has India’s defence engagements with other major militaries such as USA, UK, Japan, Australia, France, Oman, UAE etc.Poland’s stand of Kashmir being a bilateral issue scuttled Pakistani efforts to internationalize the Kashmir issue in 2019.
There are good reasons for India and Poland to deepen their relations. Poland has recently announced an increase in its defence spending to eventually reach five percent of its GDP. This accords a good opportunity for the Indian defence industry to export. Just as the Indian Armed Forces are rich in combat experience, so are the Poles, having seen combat in Iraq and Afghanistan. Knowledge sharing, interoperability and building trust through joint exercises between the Polish Air Force and IAF should be on the menu soon.
Military training and education are areas where India can contribute towards Polish capability development. Indo-Poland bilateral trade has immense potential to increase. As per UN COMTRADE Data 2022, it stood at US $ 5.34 billion, with Indian exports at US $ 3.88 and imports at US $1.46 billion. As per World Bank, Poland’s per capita GDP in 2021 was US $ 18000. With a literacy rate of 99.8 percent and growth rate of 6.8 percent, Poland has good economic potential. Indian companies have invested over US $ 3 billion in Poland while the Polish investments in India amount to US$ 700 million. There is a sound case for further enhancement and fostering institutional interaction between industry bodies on both sides.
Poland is not without challenges. It is housing over 1.3 million refugees from Ukraine at an estimated cost of more than € 8.4 billion, busy channelizing Western material support to Ukraine and has been on the Russian crosshair for being vociferous in denouncing their invasion of Ukraine. Within the EU, it faces growing criticism for disempowering its judiciary, leading to the EU withholding € 35 billion in grants and loans, owed to Poland from the European pandemic recovery fund. The right-wing government of Poland has also been accused of being illiberal.
In April this year, the Polish Foreign Minister, Zbigniew Rau, delivered a formal, comprehensive foreign policy statement. Without demurring Poland has stood up to be counted and continue being in the forefront against powers that use violence to subjugate sovereign nations. Its high economic growth, growing military capability, excellent human capital and leadership in CEE are ingredients that make it into a regional power- a pole of reckoning within a multi-polar Europe. Most importantly, it is Poland’s principled stand of saying ‘NO’ to invasions, aggressions and autocratic regimes that gives it the moral standing to be a pole, capable of carving its own destiny and being a beacon of hope for peace and stability. It has the qualities required for a leadership role. It is therefore a ‘pole’ to bank on- even by non-Europeans.
The author served in the IAF for over three decades. A highly experienced Qualified Flying Instructor, he has also trained pilots of Mauritius Police Force. He was Head of Faculty engaged in Professional Military Education for young officers of IAF.
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