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Things have just started looking up, inflation is under control, an interest rate cut could come next month, but tea leaf production in India is about to throw a spanner in the works. 

The price of a cuppa could be about to rise after harvests in places across the country were drastically reduced by extreme weather events – including floods and heatwaves. 

As a result, it’s predicted average tea prices this year could be 16% to 20% higher than in 2023.

In the last week of June, the typical price of Indian tea leaves rose to more than £2 per kg – a near 20% increase, according to the Tea Board. 

A government ban on 20 pesticides has also had an impact. 

More than half of India’s total tea production is plucked
during July to October.

“Extreme weather events are hurting tea production. Excessive heat in May, followed by ongoing flooding in Assam, are reducing output,” said Prabhat Bezboruah, a senior tea planter and former chairman of India’s Tea Board.

The country produced a record 1.394 billion kg of tea in 2023, but in 2024 production could fall by around 100 million kg, he warned.

India’s tea production in May plunged more than 30% from a year earlier to 90.92 million kg – its lowest for that month in more than a decade. 

In June, production improved slightly thanks to good rainfall, but flooding in July limited plucking in many districts of Assam. 

The region accounts for more than half the country’s tea output, and the UK is India’s top export destination. 

And, we are a nation of tea drinkers – consuming around 100 million cups a day. 

The average price of a packet of 80 tea bags costs £2.64 – up from £2.38 last year, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Of course, the extent of the price increases depends on a variety of factors, including how much manufacturers and retailers will absorb and if tea supply contracts are due to expire.