In the coming week, India’s Q3 GDP, Manufacturing and Services purchasing managers indices (PMI) for February, Infrastructure Output (YoY) for January, and Automobile February sales numbers are improtant data points to monitor. Divgi Torqtransfer IPO, the first public offering of 2023, opens March 1.
The final monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for Manufacturing and Services from key economies like the US, the UK, and the Eurozone are also part of the economic reports that will be released the following week.
From the Eurozone, February preliminary CPI data and the unemployment rate are significant releases. In Japan, the focus will be on the Tokyo CPI and Core CPI, retail sales figures, industrial production figures, and consumer confidence numbers. From China, Caixin Manufacturing Index and Services PMI data are expected.
In the US, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, S&P Global final PMI readings, durable goods, pending homes sales, and initial jobless claims data releases are the key.
Global earnings season continues with key reports expected from Dell Technologies, Dollar Tree, HP, Kroger, Kuehne + Nagel International, Merck, National Bank of Canada, among others.
Ahead of the data releases, take a look at how the previous month’s macroeconomic data for economies such as India and the United States looked:
Let’s take a look at the key economic data releases for the week beginning February 27, 2023.
Here’s the schedule:
February 27 (Monday)
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Final (Feb)
Consumer confidence recovered further (+1.4) in January. In the Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator released on February 20 by DG ECFIN, the estimate of consumer confidence indicator improved by 1.5 percentage points in the EU and 1.7 percentage points in the euro area (EA). At -20.6 (EU) and ‑19.0 (EA) percentage points, consumer confidence remains well below its long-term average.
(Consumer Confidence is a trend associated with higher consumption levels, which increase GDP)
Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectation (Feb)
According to the monthly Commission survey, consumer inflation expectations dropped from 23.2 in December to 17.7 in January. Manufacturers’ forecasts for selling prices decreased from 37.8 in December to 31.9 in January. Inflation in the eurozone fell from 9.2% in December 2022 to 8.6% in January 2023.
The Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) increased by 2.3 points to 98.0 in the EU and by 2.8 points to 99.9 in the euro area in January 2023. The Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) also went up (+2.3 points to 108.5 in the EU and +2.7 points to 110.1 in the euro area).
Industry confidence increased for the second consecutive month (+1.7) from -0.6 in December and in services, improved markedly (+1.6). The mood among consumers improved to -20.9 in January from -22.1 and in the retail sector to -0.8 from -2.7.
(Eurostat’s Consumer Inflation Expectation Number is a report that attempts to forecast future inflation by analysing consumer surveys from across the Eurozone)
Other data releases on Monday: US Core Durable Goods Orders (Jan), US Pending Home Sales (Jan), Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) and Japan Retail Sales (Jan).
February 28 (Tuesday)
India GDP Annual
In the fiscal year 2021-22, India’s GDP had grown by 8.7%. India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow by 7% in 2022-23, the statistics ministry said on January 6.
Private consumption in this fiscal is expected to grow by 7.7 percent, as against 7.9 percent in FY22. Gross fixed capital formation is estimated to grow by 11.5 percent in FY23, as compared to a growth of 15.8 recorded last year.
Gross national income and net national income are estimated grow at 6.6 percent in FY23, lower than 8.8 percent in FY22. The per-capita GDP is estimated to grow at 5.8 percent in this fiscal, as compared to a growth of 7.6 percent recorded in the year-ago period.
India Q3 GDP
India’s GDP likely grew 5-5.1% in third quarter of FY23, according to analysts, much lower than the 6.3 per cent growth recorded in the previous quarter.
India’s economic growth slowed down to 6.3% in the July-September quarter, dragged down mainly by the poor performance of manufacturing and mining sectors, official data released by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation showed on November 30, 2022. This was at par with the estimate.
India’s GDP growth slowed down to 5.4% in October-December 2021 from 8.5% in the previous quarter, as per the data released.
(The annualised change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy is measured as GDP. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the most important indicator of the health of the economy)
India Infrastructure Output (Jan)
India’s eight core industrial sectors grew by 7.4 percent in December 2022, as against a growth of 3.8 percent recorded in the year-ago period, as per the data released by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry on January 31.
(The infrastructure sector accounts for 26.68 percent of India’s industrial output.)
US CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in January. The Index had dropped to 107.1 (1985=100) from 109.0 in December 2022 (an upward revision).
The results of the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence survey, which will be released on Tuesday, will provide insight into how consumers perceive economic activity. This metric is significant because it can reveal how Americans intend to spend their money.
(The Consumer Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey reflects current business conditions and likely developments in the coming months. This monthly report provides information on consumer attitudes, purchasing intentions, vacation plans, and expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates. Data is available by age, income, nine regions, and the top eight states.)
Other important data releases on Tuesday: India Fiscal Deficit (YoY) (Jan), BoJ Core CPI (YoY), Japan Manufacturing PMI (Feb), US Goods Trade Balance (Jan), US House Price Index (Dec), and US S&P/CS HPI Composite (MoM) (Dec).
March 1 (Wednesday)
India IHS S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Manufacturing sector grew strongly in January. India’s Manufacturing PMI declined to a three-month low of 55.4 in January from December’s 26-month high of 57.8.
This was the 19th consecutive 50-plus print for India’s manufacturing PMI. At 55.4, the January PMI print was at a three-month low.
(A reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while below 50 is a sign of contraction)
(The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index that includes survey results from manufacturing firms across the country. )
Other key data releases on Wednesday: UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Feb), UK Manufacturing PMI Final (Feb), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb), and Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Feb) (Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports offer an important snapshot on the broader economic landscape.)
March 2 (Thursday)
Eurozone Flash CPI Estimate (YoY) (Feb)
Consumer price inflation in the 20 nations sharing the Euro eased to 8.6% in January from 9.2% a month earlier
(The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of a basket of consumer goods and services. The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks changes in the prices of goods and services that do not include food and energy. )
Tokoy CPI and Core CPI (YoY) (Feb)
In Japan, February CPI, a leading indicator of inflation trends, estimates for the Tokyo region are due on March 2. Inflation in Japan’s capital grew in January. Tokyo CPI inflation grew 4.4% in January from 4% in the prior month, hitting an over 41-year high. The Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index rose at an annualized 4.3% in January from 4.0% in the prior month, also hitting a 41-year high.
(Tokyo CPI is thought to be a leading indicator for Japan’s overall CPI.)
Other key data releases on Thursday: Eurozone Unemployment rate (Jan), US continuing Jobless claims, US Initial jobless claims (Upto Feb 25), Japan Unemployment rate (Jan) and Japan Services PMI (Feb).
March 3 (Friday)
India IHS S&P Global Services PMI (Feb)
January saw sharp expansions in services activity and new business. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index posted 57.2 in January, falling from 58.5 in December.
At 57.2, the services PMI is above the key level of 50 separates expansion in activity from a contraction for the eighteenth month in a row.
(A reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while below 50 is a sign of contraction.)
Other key data releases on Friday: India Forex Reserves, Eurozone S&P Global composite PMI Final (Feb)2, Eurozone Services PMI Final (Feb), UK Composite PMI Final (Feb), UK Services PMI Final (Feb), Eurozone PPI (MoM) (Jan), US S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Feb), US Services PMI Final (Feb), US ISM Services PMI (Feb).
Earnings reports in the upcoming week
While earnings season has ended in India, in the United States, major companies such as Ivanhoe Mines, Zoom Video Communications, MEG Energy (February 27); HP, Alcon, Bank Of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Aecon Group, Agilent Technologies, Axon Enterprise, Novavax, (February 28); Royal Bank Of Canada, Wendy’s Company, National Bank of Canada, George Weston, Canfor Corp, NFI Group, Dollar Tree, Kohl’s Corp, Abercrombie & Fitch, Lowes, A&W Revenue Royalties Income Fund, Salesforce, Tricon Residential, Tourmaline Oil, Descartes Systems Group, AutoCanada (March 1); Dell Technologies, Hewlett Packard, Best Buy, Kroger Company (March 2); SNC Lavalin, Martinrea International, Crescent Point Energy, Canadian Natural Resources (March 3) are set to release their latest quarterly reports.
(With inputs from Agencies)
