Glacier Bancorp (NYSE:GBCI) sheds US$160m, company earnings and investor returns have been trending downwards for past year
It’s easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. For example, the Glacier Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:GBCI) share price is down 43% in the last year. That’s well below the market return of 12%. At least the damage isn’t so bad if you look at the last three years, since the stock is down 21% in that time. Furthermore, it’s down 10% in about a quarter. That’s not much fun for holders. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 8.3% in the same timeframe.
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let’s investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
See our latest analysis for Glacier Bancorp
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Unhappily, Glacier Bancorp had to report a 9.5% decline in EPS over the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 43% share price fall. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, a year ago.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Glacier Bancorp’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Glacier Bancorp the TSR over the last 1 year was -41%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Glacier Bancorp shareholders are down 41% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 12%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 3% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should “buy when there is blood on the streets”, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It’s always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Glacier Bancorp better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Glacier Bancorp is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant…
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we’re helping make it simple.
Find out whether Glacier Bancorp is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
