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Emmanuel Macron has warned that the EU is facing a “mortal” threat from economic decline, rising illiberalism and the return of war caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In a speech at Sorbonne University on Thursday, the French president sketched an at times dark portrait of the challenges facing Europe and made the case for radical changes in the bloc’s defence, monetary and investment policies.
“We have to be lucid that our Europe today is mortal — it can die — and it depends on the choices that we make now,” he said. “The rules of the game have changed.”
He said the EU needed to double its financial firepower to invest hundreds of billions of euros each year in new technologies, stronger defence and the decarbonisation of its economy.
Macron endorsed the idea of common debt issuance to boost defence industry co-operation, and called on the EU to develop its own “strategic concept” for a shared European defence compatible with Nato.
He also floated a policy of “European preference” in defence and space industries to be written into the EU treaties — a process that would take years and be subject to referendums in some member states.
Macron also wanted the European Central Bank’s monetary policy to no longer be driven only by inflation targets, given how the fight against climate change will drive up energy prices. He proposed changing the bank’s mandate to add economic growth and climate-related targets — a move that may also require treaty change.
Separately from the speech, Macron’s increased hawkishness on Russia was on display in Brussels as French diplomats pushed for a new EU sanctions regime targeting “Russian-led destabilisation activities”. The French plan would target entities such as the Wagner paramilitary group and people running Russian influence operations ahead of EU elections, such as pro-Kremlin Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk.
The proposal was made with the support of the Baltic states, Poland and the Netherlands and would “help to further stigmatise Russian-led destabilisation actors and send a strong signal to governments tempted to enter into contracts with them”.
Thursday’s more than 100-minute speech was billed by Macron’s advisers as Sorbonne II, a callback to another speech given on the same stage in 2017 in which he listed dozens of proposals on everything from defence to technology to build a Europe less dependent on other powers.
The French president hailed the progress the EU had since made towards building its “strategic autonomy” and reiterated his call for Europe to take more responsibility for its security.
“A powerful Europe must make itself respected and ensure its own security. It must have borders and protect them. It must see the risks it faces and prepare for them,” Macron said.
Macron’s 2017 Sorbonne speech was met with scepticism at the time, especially from Germany then led by Angela Merkel.
In contrast to his predecessor who ignored that speech, German chancellor Olaf Scholz reacted within hours saying: “France and Germany both want Europe to remain strong. Your speech contains good ideas on how we can achieve this.”
But the successive crises of the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine and the energy shock it triggered have partly shifted the EU in Macron’s direction. He pointed to the decision to jointly borrow €800bn to help the bloc’s economies recover from the pandemic as a vindication of his vision.
Although some French ideas such as the need for stronger industrial policy have also gained traction with member states, many other proposals Macron made in 2017 fell on deaf ears.
Macron’s 2017 vision
Five ideas from Macron’s first Sorbonne speech that shaped EU policy:
1) A more sovereign Europe less dependent on other powers has become an EU priority
2) Greater co-operation among EU member states to boost military capabilities
3) A carbon border tax on imports
4) Tougher trade policy including measures to ensure a level playing field with trade partners
5) EU-wide support for batteries for electric vehicles and other strategic industries
Five proposals by Macron that have made little or no headway:
1) A common defence budget and intervention force by the early 2020s
2) A central eurozone budget managed by an EU finance minister and backed by dedicated taxes
3) An EU-wide financial transactions tax to fund international development
4) Cutting the number of European commissioners from 27 to 15
5) Half of the European parliament to be elected on EU-wide candidate lists by 2024
His position has also been weakened domestically since his centrist alliance lost its parliamentary majority in 2022, making further reforms difficult especially as deteriorating public finances leave little margin to spend.
Polls on the upcoming European elections in June show that Macron’s list is running almost 15 points behind that of far-right leader Marine Le Pen. His allies hope the combative speech will give a boost to the faltering campaign, whose list is led by a little-known MEP named Valérie Hayer.
Macron called for huge EU investment in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, space, biotechnology, nuclear power and hydrogen production, saying the bloc needed subsidy instruments that were as easy to deploy as the tax credits rolled out under the US Inflation Reduction Act.
He also called for a tougher EU trade policy that would always stipulate respect for Europe’s environmental standards and mutual market access. AI and green tech should be covered by “carve-outs” from free trade policy, he said.
To finance such ambitions, Macron again argued that the EU needed its own dedicated tax revenues such as from the carbon border tax that has just gone into effect, an EU-wide financial transaction tax and taxing multinationals more by eliminating profit-shifting techniques — both suggested by him in 2017 but not since adopted. It would also have to deepen and link its capital markets, he argued, in another long-promised but unrealised EU reform.
“Now is the time that Europe needs to ask itself what it wants to be,” Macron said. “This is a decisive moment.”
