Over the past year, Europe has witnessed significant developments in the European Union’s expansion process, marked by new perspectives and challenges. While progress has been made, the Western Balkans, particularly Kosovo and Serbia, remain embroiled in complex negotiations. The issue of the Association of Serbian Municipalities in Kosovo has become a significant point of contention, and with Russia’s presence and evolving European geopolitics, the Western Balkans have gained newfound importance.
- 21 November 2023 16:00
By Ivona Zametica & Fjorent Rrushi
Market Trends
Europe’s expansion history is punctuated with significant moments, and the past year has been no exception. Just a year ago, EU leaders grappled with dissatisfaction following a meeting that accepted Ukraine and Moldova as candidates while suspending negotiations with Albania and Bulgaria. However, thanks to President Macron’s mediation, Bulgaria withdrew its veto on North Macedonia, paving the way for discussions with both countries.
Yet, the Balkans remain a region of tension, with Kosovo and Serbia locked in a complex negotiation dance. While there seemed to be initial agreement between leaders, the devil lies in the details, particularly regarding the Association of Serbian Municipalities in Kosovo. Kosovo fears that granting executive powers to this association could create a de facto second Republika Srpska within its borders, while Belgrade seeks substantial powers for Serbs in Kosovo through the Association.
The European Union and the United States have pressed Serbia and Kosovo to de-escalate tensions and actively engage in negotiations. This is closely linked to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, which has prompted a shift in Europe’s perspective on the Western Balkans, emphasizing the need for long-term security and stability.
Challenges in EU ExpansionEU expansion is no simple task, as it involves navigating intricate decision-making processes and necessitates internal reforms within the EU itself. Resistance within the EU, coupled with the lack of tangible benefits for Western Balkan nations, has hindered the translation of support into substantive reforms in the region. Concerns about democratic backsliding and corruption in existing EU member states have further complicated expansion discussions.
However, innovative approaches offer a way forward. One such idea suggests a gradual accession system for Western Balkan countries, complemented by robust EU policies to resolve bilateral disputes in the region. The entry into each stage of accession would come with increasing EU funding, contingent upon compliance with EU rules.
The concept of reversibility could also be applied, where stages could be reversed in case of failure to implement EU laws, reducing institutional participation and funding. This approach ensures an effective incentive structure throughout the accession process, from initial stages to final EU membership.
Recent DevelopmentsEU leaders presented a growth plan for the Western Balkans at the Berlin Process summit in Tirana, Albania, aiming to grant partial access to the EU single market and provide financial support. The plan aims to narrow the economic gap between the Western Balkans and the EU, potentially doubling the region’s economies in the next decade. Additionally, the EU intends to expand the single market in various areas and streamline cashless payments. Deep-rooted reforms and a €6 billion investment package are seen as essential for enlargement by 2030.
Kosovo, Serbia, and the Western Balkans at large face significant challenges. Kosovo has seen recent tensions in its northern region, while Serbia’s unresolved issues with Kosovo act as a barrier to further integration. Bosnia and Herzegovina, after six years, finally gained Candidate country status for EU membership. North Macedonia’s constitution amendment remains a contentious issue, and Montenegro has transitioned from a long-ruling party to a new political landscape. Albania continues to face obstacles due to institutional weaknesses.
The recent progress in “the EC to-do list” provides a perfect tailwind to the expected EU Council decision whether Bosnia and Herzegovina can start negotiations on accession, which some local and international diplomats are announcing for early 2024. All this comes along with more frequent emphasizing of speeding up of the EU accession of the Western Balkans until 2030 by high ranking EU officials such as Mr. Michel and M. Borrell.
Ivona Zametica, Head of Research, Raiffeisen Bank Bosnia & Herzegovina
The complex decision-making process of EU enlargement and the necessity of institutional reform within the EU itself create complications, but progress can still be made through alternatives like the “passerelle clause,” allowing the European Council to adopt decisions with a qualified majority, without the need for treaty changes or ratification by EU Member States.
Fjorent Rrushi, Head of Research, Raiffeisen Bank Albania
ConclusionThe EU’s expansion into the Western Balkans is a complex and evolving process. While challenges abound, innovative approaches offer hope for progress. The recent growth plan for the Western Balkans, presented at the Berlin Process summit, is a significant step toward narrowing the economic gap with the EU. The region’s economic potential, aligned with European single market principles, presents opportunities for accelerated growth.
As Europe stands at a crossroads, the path to integration and peace remains a tantalizing puzzle. The Western Balkans continue to be a vital and geo-strategic policy domain for the next decade. With diplomatic efforts, political boldness, and the right policies, EU expansion in the Western Balkans may become a reality in the next decade.
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