Cabinet big beast heading for the exit – POLITICO

Good Sunday afternoon. This is Annabelle Dickson in the Sunday Crunch hotseat. Like some of the Sunday political shows we are taking a summer break. Our London Playbook service continues through the summer, as always, but I’ll be back in your inbox again on September 3. Bonnes vacances!

THINGS TO KNOW

BYE BYE BEN: A Cabinet big beast has had enough and Labour is offering little in the way of big spending pledges for their opponents to criticize on their election leaflets. Barring a by-election miracle on Thursday, Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives will head off on their summer holidays this week with little to cheer.

Waving off Wallace: The big weekend news was confirmation from Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, in an interview in the Sunday Times, that he will leave the Cabinet at the next reshuffle, and won’t be fighting the next general election. It was not the most helpful timing for the Conservatives ahead of this week’s by-election bonanza, where the party is fighting an uphill battle to hold Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, and Somerton and Frome in Somerset. 

Why it matters: Wallace, still a relatively young 53 years old, has the rare trait among Conservatives at the moment of being pretty popular, particularly among the party faithful. He has consistently topped Conservative Home’s Cabinet league table.

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Exodus in full: Sky, among others, has a useful list of all the MPs who have now announced they won’t be standing at the next election. There are a lot already.

Let’s not worry: In her Sky interview from New Zealand (more on why below,) a jet-lagged Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch played down the significance of the Wallace departure. “I think the fact that Ben has been in politics for about 25 years means that we should be celebrating his career, and not worrying about it,” she told Sky’s Sophy Ridge. Public service is “very grueling and draining,” she said, giving short shrift to those linking it to “unrelated issues.”

Lessons from Leadsom: Over on the BBC, ex-Cabinet minister Andrea Leadsom was also trying to play down the Wallace departure, telling the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg it was “completely reasonable” that Wallace should want to quit as one of the longest servers as defense secretary. Of the vast numbers calling time on their political careers, Leadsom said people were getting tired of the “harassment on social media” and “vitriol in the press.” 

Right on cue: Wallace isn’t off until the next reshuffle (expected in September) and will still find the absolutely brutal report from parliament’s defense committee, which lays into the government’s record on buying defense equipment, landing on his desk this week. The report concludes the procurement system is “well and truly broken” and MPs claim it puts servicemen and women in “harm’s way.”

Coming attraction: The long-awaited Ministry of Defense armed forces strategy is reportedly due to be published on Tuesday. The Sunday Telegraph says it will outline plans for former soldiers to be called on to join a “surge” force in future crises, and for an expanded use of tech.

Delicious detail: Wallace’s interview in the Sunday Times is a belter, and worth reading in full. Wallace recounts quite the anecdote from the pre-Russia invasion days of how his codewords in messages to his Ukrainian counterpart for the weapons systems Britain was supplying were whiskies, making it look like he was sending a drinks order.

Ooops: It appears the tricky timing for Sunak might have been avoided. Tim Shipman says Wallace told Sunak he was planning to go four weeks ago, and was going to announce his decision to quit over the summer, but briefings from top of government trying to make it look like it was No. 10’s idea forced his hand.

Message to Ukraine: Before he goes, Wallace appears to have wanted to clarify his comments last week about Ukraine needing to show gratitude. In a lengthy Saturday night tweet, in Ukrainian, Wallace said his remark was not a comment about governments, but more about citizens and members of parliaments.

KEIR CALLING: A more chipper Keir Starmer has been out and about with a pre-by-election offer of not spending bundles of cash. The Labour leader has a piece in the Observer ruling out spending “vast sums of money” if Labour wins power, and took the same message to the BBC studio this morning where he repeatedly refused to promise to spend more money on public services than the Conservatives, if Labour wins power. 

Any news? Well he was pretty definitive that Labour will not scrap the two-child benefit cap introduced by the Tories. George Osborne brought in new rules meaning households claiming a child tax credit or universal credit are unable to claim for a third or subsequent child born after 6 April 2017. Starmer also wouldn’t commit to unfreezing housing benefits. He didn’t rule out reforming the Bank of England inflation target either. As for Labour’s plan to bring an end to those headline-grabbing and service-disrupting pay disputes, Starmer said it was the “government’s problem.”

Keir on tree huggers: Starmer also told the BBC he hadn’t actually said he hates tree huggers (as per the Sunday Times last week). He did however launch into a lengthy anecdote about meeting some steel workers in Scunthorpe he seemed to approve of who he said were not tree huggers but are “very determined to go green.” 

Starmer hates JSO: Starmer dismissed Mail on Sunday claims that his PPS Jess Morden arranged to meet protest group Just Stop Oil as a “nonsense story,” and didn’t pull his punches about his disdain for the group. (JSO must focus group very badly.) Starmer recalled how his mum had often needed to get to hospital by ambulance, and told the BBC’s Laura K: “The idea that you could simply arrogantly stand in front of an ambulance and stop it getting to hospital, I think is wrong.” He insisted neither he nor his team were meeting the group.

About those U-turns: Starmer will be expecting plenty of heat in the coming months about his multiple U-turns since he courted the Labour faithful for the leadership (h/t to my ace colleague Andrew McDonald for this comprehensive list). Starmer told the BBC’s Laura K that actually his “central promise” was to change the party and make it “electorally credible.” The argument, it seems, is that trumps everything. 

Blair is back (again): Ex-PM Tony Blair was the lead interview on the Sky News Sunday show this morning ahead of his institute’s flagship Future of Britain conference this week. Blair told Ridge the NHS needs to cooperate with the private sector — a red rag to the left of the Labour Party.

Why does he matter: It is pretty extraordinary that a man who left office 16 years ago still has such a big role in the policy debate, but he is interesting given Starmer, who is miles ahead in opinion polls, has made no secret of the fact he speaks to Blair. In fact, Starmer is speaking at his Future of Britain conference this week. 

SELLING THE DEAL: Badenoch was actually dialing into the Sunday media round from New Zealand to tell us all what a great trade deal the CPTPP is after signing it in the early hours. The bloc includes several countries in Asia and the Pacific, including Japan and Australia. She had strong words for the naysayers: “What we should be doing is praising the effort that is taken to get us into this regional bloc,” she said.

Use it: Talking down the deal as not worthwhile would “become a self-fulfilling prophecy,” she warned. “We have to stop doing this, talking down our country. No other country does this, this is a fantastic deal,” she added. She reiterated that message on the BBC, claiming people would benefit if they used it.

Some friends: The Tory friendly papers do plenty of cheerleading for the deal this morning. The Sun on Sunday says cheaper booze is on the way as a result of the deal, while the Sunday Express has had a Twitter ribbing for its headline describing the deal as a “£12 trillion Brexit trade boost.” 

Should China be allowed to join? Asked by the BBC about China’s prospects of joining the CPTPP pact, Badenoch didn’t offer the veto on Beijing’s accession some of her colleagues would have wanted to hear. “When you join the club, the very first thing you don’t do is tell the other club members who should be or shouldn’t be allowed to join,” Badenoch said. 

Indian summer? Badenoch said claims that trade talks with India have stalled are “not true,” pointing out the Indian trade minister was in the U.K. last week. “These things take time because if we get them wrong, you would be accusing me of signing deals that were not worth the paper they’re written on,” Badenoch told Sky. 

Now read this: If you haven’t seen it already, POLITICO’s Graham Lanktree’s look at why Tokyo is the biggest winner of the U.K.’s accession to the CPTPP is worth your time. He was writing about CPTPP way before it was cool.

QUICK-FIRE CATCH-UP

EXPECTATIONS MANAGEMENT: Comments to bookmark. Badenoch did the obligatory expectations management ahead of Thursday’s by-elections on her media round. “It is very hard for governments to win by-elections when we’ve been in power,” she told Sky, claiming after 13 years in power the stage of the electoral cycle was “more than midterms now.” Her trade colleague Nigel Huddleston is more optimistic. “I’m very, very hopeful that we’ll win actually,” he told Times Radio.

Alway a letter: It’s all gone a bit 2022 in the Sunday Express though with some Tory MPs already talking about replacing Sunak. A former Cabinet minister tells the paper there is “definitely” still time to revive the party’s ­fortunes under a new leader, urging Sunak to consider whether he should stay in post.

TAXING TALKS: A No. 10 source was quick to distance Sunak from talks reportedly being held in Downing Street about scrapping inheritance tax. The impeccably sourced Times team reported on Saturday that an inheritance tax manifesto pledge is a “live” discussion among senior figures. 

Line to take: Badenoch would not be drawn on the speculation, but echoed the No. 10 line that the focus is on halving inflation, insisting that would “have a far bigger impact on most people’s discretionary income than inheritance tax policy.”

ADVISING SCHOOLS: Government guidance on how to approach trans issues in schools is due to be published this week. When asked if teachers should have to tell parents if children want to change gender, Badenoch, who is also equalities minister, told the BBC there was “quite a lot of confusion about what the law says” but that it was “important that parents are aware of what’s going on with their children and what’s happening to them at school.” She said there would be “robust guidance” coming shortly.

TURKEY DEAL: Home Secretary Suella Braverman is eyeing a deal with Turkey to speed up the deportation of Channel migrants, similar to the one struck with Albania, the Sunday Telegraph reports. The paper says more than 1,000 migrants from Turkey have arrived since the beginning of the year, and Home Office minister Robert Jenrick will open talks with the Turkish government later this month. 

Not going down well: The BBC’s west of England correspondent Dan Johnson has been to Portland in Dorset —  the first place in the country to house asylum seekers on a floating accommodation barge, and finds the plan is not going down well. 

STATE THREAT: Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper tells the Sunday Times a Labour government would bring in new legislation to ban dangerous state-sponsored organizations, including Russia’s Wagner Group and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and would also create a “joint cell” between the Home Office and the Foreign Office.

RIDGE OUT: Sky’s Sophy Ridge will be getting her Sunday mornings back. She confirmed this morning she is launching a new politics show —the Politics Hub — at 7 p.m. on weeknights. Trevor Phillips, who stood in when she went on maternity leave, is taking over the Sunday slot permanently. Ridge has been a Sunday news-making machine, often eeking fascinating answers out of the most media-trained guests with her savvy questions. Ridge signed off today’s show recounting how badly Theresa May’s team reacted to her notorious questions to the then-PM on how Donald Trump’s lewd remarks about women went down.

TORY MP LATEST: The Sunday Times has a 1,200-word article about the Tory MP Andrew Rosindell.

TAKING THE MICK: Boris Johnson’s new Oxfordshire neighbors appear to be having fun. The Sunday Mirror says they have been raising an EU flag in their garden. Chapeau to reporter Saskia Rowlands who writes that “support for Boris Johnson is already flagging.”

FEATURED: There have been some great interviews in the weekend papers. Treasury committee chair Harriet Baldwin talks to Saturday’s Times about why the big beasts in the City “can’t mansplain” her. In Saturday’s Mail, Felicity Mercer talked to Rebecca Hardy about taking on her and her husband’s Twitter trolls.

MEDIA ROUND

Ayesha Hazarika on Times Radio (4 p.m. to 7 p.m.): Conservative MP Alec Shelbrooke … Labour MP Ruth Jones … Lib Dem MP Sarah Olney.

Gloria Meets on GB News (6 p.m.): Conservative peer David Frost … Conservative MP Katherine Fletcher … Labour mayor of the West of England Dan Norris. 

Westminster Hour (BBC Radio 4, 10 p.m.): Public accounts committee chair Meg Hillier … Health committee chair Steve Brine … Lib Dem MP Sarah Olney … More in Common’s Luke Tryl … POLITICO’s own Jack Blanchard. 

WEEK AHEAD

MONDAY

COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with education questions followed by ping pong on the small boats, social housing and strikes bills.  

STRIKES: ASLEF train drivers begin week-long overtime ban. 

COVID-19: Trade unions and charities to give evidence to the COVID-19 inquiry.

DIPLOMACY: Foreign Secretary James Cleverly to chair UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine.

HEALTH: National Audit Office due to publish a report into the U.K. government’s new hospitals program.

TUESDAY

MEDIA: BBC Director General Tim Davie to give evidence to the Lords Communications Committee, 2.30 p.m.

COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with foreign office questions followed by more ping pong on the small boats bill, and ping pong on the Northern Ireland troubles legacy bill. 

TECH: Foreign Secretary James Cleverly to chair a session on artificial intelligence at the UN Security Council. 

CONFERENCE: Labour Leader Keir Starmer and Defense Secretary Ben Wallace to address the Tony Blair Institute’s Future of Britain Conference. 

COVID-19: Bereaved families to give evidence in the final day of the first stage of the COVID-19 inquiry.

CIVIL SERVICE: Cabinet Secretary Simon Case to give evidence to peers on the hiring and firing of senior civil servants, 1.15 p.m.

JUSTICE: Justice Secretary Alex Chalk to give evidence to the justice committee, 2.30 p.m.

LORDS: Former Tory London Mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey to be sworn into the House of Lords. 

DEFENSE: Ministry of Defense expected to publish its updated command paper.

WEDNESDAY

ECONOMY: Office for National Statistics to publish the latest U.K. inflation figures, 7 a.m. 

DEFENSE: Aspen Security Forum opens. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly due to speak. 

LONDON: Winner of the Conservative mayoral candidate race expected to be announced.

COURTS: Tory MP Bob Stewart due in court accused of a public order offense.

COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with DSIT questions followed by PMQs and more small boats ping pong, if needed. 

CLIMATE CHANGE: Chief Executive at Climate Change Committee Chris Stark at the environmental audit committee, 1.15 p.m.

INFLATION: Chief Executive at Competition and Markets Authority Sarah Cardell to give evidence to the business committee on inflation, 4 p.m.

BREXIT: Port of Dover and Eurotunnel executives at the European Scrutiny Committee talking border checks, 2.30 p.m.

THURSDAY 

COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with culture, media and sport questions followed by the business statement and a final debate before parliament rises for the summer. 

ELECTIONS: Conservatives face three by-elections in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton.

STRIKES: Strikes by RMT rail workers, NUJ BBC England journalists, and BMA hospital consultants.

LORDS: Boris Johnson spokesman Ross Kempsell to be sworn into the House of Lords. 

FRIDAY

ECONOMY: Office for National Statistics to publish latest public sector finance and retail sales figures, 7 a.m.

LABOUR: Labour’s National Policy Forum due to meet in Nottingham.

SATURDAY

STRIKES: RMT rail strikes continue.

ENERGY: G20 energy ministers to meet in Goa.  

SUNDAY

ELECTIONS: Spanish and Cambodian elections to be held. 

STRIKES: RMT tube staff strike. 

Thanks: To Jones Hayden for giving Crunch some Sunday sparkle.

**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: Almost 1.5M households in Great Britain are on waiting lists for social housing according to official figures, and research shows that the real need is considerably greater. That’s why Lloyds Banking Group has partnered with homelessness charity Crisis to call for one million new and genuinely affordable homes to be built by 2033. Charlie Nunn, CEO Lloyds Banking Group, said: “A safe and secure home is a fundamental human need, and yet the reality is a chronic lack of affordable housing in the UK. This means there are too many people trapped in a cycle of temporary accommodation, or living in poor, sometimes dangerous conditions. “That’s why we’re committed to working with Crisis, and business and community organisations across the housing sector, to help end homelessness with homes.” Find out more about our partnership and our commitment to help Britain prosper here.**