CHICAGO – The increasing prospects of a US federal government shutdown has some Bitcoin advocates predicting a rally similar to one that happened in response to a regional bank crisis earlier in 2023.
“We actually saw Bitcoin rally as a sort of safety hedge against further banking unrest,” said Mr Stephane Ouellette, co-founder and chief executive of FRNT Financial. “It will be very interesting to see if the market is going to buy Bitcoin during all different types of periods of US economic/financial uncertainty or just in a banking crisis context as we saw earlier in the year.”
Bitcoin jumped roughly 25 per cent over a one-month period in March when three small- to mid-sized US banks failed over the course of five days. That was even after a bank run on Silicon Valley Bank, where a portion of stablecoin issuer Circle’s deposits was trapped for several days before they were returned in full to the Boston-based company.
Bitcoin was little changed on Wednesday at around US$26,258. After rallying more than 80 per cent in the first half of 2023, the largest cryptocurrency by market value has declined about 14 per cent.
A United States government shutdown will have a cascading economic effect. Federal contractors ranging from billionaire Elon Musk’s SpaceX to janitorial service providers for local federal buildings are bracing themselves for up to US$1.9 billion (S$2.6 billion) a day in lost and delayed revenue as funding lapses on Oct 1. The blow will hit as anxiety in financial markets over high interest rates, rising oil prices and labour strikes already weigh on markets.
Mr James Butterfill, head of research at crypto asset manager CoinShares, also predicts that the US governmental disarray will boost the price of Bitcoin.
“We expect the shutdown to exert pressure on the US dollar, especially following its recent strengthening, while having a material impact on economic growth in the fourth quarter,” Mr Butterfill said. “In some aspects, this scenario bears resemblance to the debt ceiling stalemate experienced earlier this year, which ended up bolstering Bitcoin prices.”
Mr Butterfill noted that there is relatively scant media coverage and discussion on the shutdown’s effect on Bitcoin prices as compared with earlier in 2023, signalling a quieter market.
From a regulatory perspective, Ms Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, is sceptical that a shutdown will impact crypto markets or tentative legislation much.
“It will slow the progress of the current crypto Bills, but that was going to be slow anyway,” Ms Acheson said.
Yesterday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced its decision to delay the filing of Ark Invest’s Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, even though it was not required to issue a decision until Nov 11.
Ms Acheson said the SEC has not said anything about the proposals from BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco and many others. That falls between Oct 16 and Oct 19, “which could be punted if the government lockdown extends”. BLOOMBERG
