What will be the best General Election result for the UK’s mortgage, property and financial services markets? – The Intermediary

Following Rishi Sunak’s announcement of a General Election on 4th July, free news agency Newspage asked practising experts in those sectors what would be the best result for the UK’s property, mortgage and financial services markets, and why.

Newspage also asked how confident they would be in Labour’s ability to manage the economy if they win. Here’s what they had to say.

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Justin Moy, managing director at EHF Mortgages:

“This could be a shrewd move by the Conservatives. The economic data is certainly starting to tip in their favour, and the IMF endorsement on Tuesday and inflation getting close to the 2% target almost certainly influenced this timing.

“Labour hasn’t clearly set out its financial policies, so that may trigger a market response, but I would be surprised if there were an adverse reaction to mortgage and swap rates.

“An election in 2024 has long been priced into the markets, and there is more likely to be a reaction once the result is clear. A hung parliament may be the worst outcome, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Tories or Labour needed to work with the Reform party.”

Samuel Mather-Holgate, independent financial advisor at Mather and Murray Financial:

“The Conservatives have been as good for the country as too much sugar is to a diabetic. They have caused the housing market to glue up, with home builders sitting on their hands and buyers disappearing.

“For years, the Tories have been out of ideas on housing, business and the economy.

“Their tax policy has strangled growth and battered business owners. Labour needs to flesh out its policies and quick.

“A six-week campaign is short and they haven’t announced any comprehensive ideas, but they couldn’t be worse than the incumbent.”

Michelle Lawson, director at Lawson Financial:

“Labour’s best gift, if they win, would be to take housing seriously and make housing a senior post. Until this happens, the storm clouds will continue to hover over the housing market, just as they did Rishi Sunak at the lectern. The one positive is that the General Election being called finally ends speculation.”

Riz Malik, director at R3 Mortgages:

“Announcing this election is the best thing Rishi Sunak has ever done for his country. The UK needs a reset and on 4th July it will get one.

“With a new administration, possible rate cuts and the feel-good factor returning, this could provide a big boost for the UK housing market. All eyes are on the policies of the next Government.”

Ben Perks, managing director at Orchard Financial Advisers:

“I met Rachel Reeves at the 2023 Labour Summit and I can vouch for her passion to improve the economy.

“She is acutely aware of the problems facing mortgage borrowers and is engaging with those on the ground to better her understanding. Her intentions seem pure. Will Labour swoop in and save the country? Probably not.

“We’ll see how they react over the coming days to Rishi’s shotgun election. We need clear and concise policy and not just a slanging match like we’ve seen in recent campaigns.”

Dariusz Karpowicz, director at Albion Financial Advice:

“If Labour wins, as current polls suggest, it might not bode well for the economy. Labour has indicated plans to tighten regulations on landlords, potentially making it even tougher for them.

“Their proposals include regulating private rents and making evictions nearly impossible. Additionally, there’s talk of a scheme forcing landlords to offer tenants a buyout option similar to Right to Buy.

“Such measures could create uncertainty and discourage investment in the property market, impacting the broader financial services sector. As for Labour’s ability to manage the economy, confidence remains low given these proposed policies.”

Kundan Bhaduri, property developer and portfolio landlord at The Kushman Group:

“This is the best chance the Tories have. Starmer is bad for developers and landlords, bad for mortgage and finance professionals, terrible for controlling immigration, weak on Ukraine, and most importantly weak on the issue of support for Israel in its fight against Hamas and controlling the motley crew of separatists in Scotland.

“That’s the story the Tories will be painting and, to be honest, there is a hint of truth in it.”

Elliott Culley, director at Switch Mortgage Finance:

“Housing was not taken seriously under the recent conservative government. More than 15 housing ministers since 2010 has left the housing sector in ruin.

“If Labour does win they need to tackle the issues in the sector decisively.

“Now we are into election season, let’s see what pledges are made. This will give us a steer as to how the economy will react.”

Daniel Wiltshire, actuary & IFA at Wiltshire Wealth:

“This is the Charge of the Light Brigade stuff. Does anyone other than Rishi think they have a chance?!

“When it comes to the economy, voters will be wondering whether Labour could really do any worse.

“This is not a good place to be in when economic credibility has traditionally been the Tory party’s trump card.”

Chris Barry, director at Thomas Legal:

“In previous years, the lead-up to a general election has left the property market like a graveyard.

“Buyers disappear due to the prospect of waiting for what’s on the other side and vendors tend not to list unless they are forced by personal circumstances. The outlook for the year was positive.

“The spring market was showing much higher volumes than expected, rate reductions were on the horizon and talks of property incentives in the autumn statement were due to help further.

“An election in July will likely mean a reduction in housing transactions until the date and then we will have to wait and see if the first 100 days of the new government will help recover the position.”