Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has given a new impetus to the EU’s enlargement. Although Ukraine and other candidate countries have a long way to go to full membership, it is useful to start analysing the potential impact of Ukraine’s accession.
The report explores the impact of Ukraine’s membership on Estonia and the EU in five fields: institutions and political balance; foreign, security, and defence policy; budget; economy; and digitalisation and cybersecurity:
- The direct impact of Ukraine’s accession on Estonia’s position in the EU institutions is limited, including a somewhat reduced weight in the decision-making of the Council and possible loss of one place in the European Parliament.
- A much more important change will be the addition of Ukraine as a like-minded country to the common foreign, security, and defence policy. Ukraine’s membership will strengthen the EU’s ability to take care of European security and act as a geopolitical power in Europe and globally.
- According to the current budgetary rules, assistance to Ukraine would mount approximately to 9 % of the EU’s budget. For Estonia, this would mean an additional contribution of EUR 40 million, which equals 0,09% of Estonia’s GDP. Estonia’s benefits from the EU budget will further decline in any case as its level of welfare moves closer to the EU average. Ukraine’s accession will speed up this process.
- Estonian enterprises will benefit from unrestricted access to the Ukrainian market and the opportunities generated by post-war reconstruction. The potential return of Ukrainian refugees to their home country might cause shortages in the Estonian labour market.
- Close cooperation between Estonia and Ukraine in the digital sphere is beneficial for both Estonian enterprises and general cyber security. Estonia can learn from Ukraine’s experience to strengthen its cyber defence and share these lessons more broadly in the EU.
The report concludes with a number of policy recommendations for Estonia. For example, it suggests Estonia engage constructively in discussions on the EU’s institutional reforms, including the extension of qualified majority voting, and gradually include Ukraine in EU defence cooperation, without waiting for its full membership.
Download and read (in Estonian): Ukraina Euroopa Liiduga liitumise mõju Euroopa Liidule ja Eestile (PDF)
This report is the final publication of the project on “The political and economic impact of Ukraine’s EU accession on the EU and Estonia” conducted by the ICDS in cooperation with the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels and the Ukrainian Institute for Economic Research and Policy. The multi-disciplinary research team assessed the potential political, security-related, institutional, economic, and budgetary implications of Ukraine’s EU accession. The project was led by Dr Kristi Raik, Deputy Director of the ICDS, and supported by the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
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