Guilty?
Americans by nearly 3-1 predict that former President Donald Trump will be convicted on all or some of the felony charges he faces in a New York courtroom, an outcome never before seen in U.S. history.
In an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, 65% expect a guilty verdict on at least some of the 34 charges that Trump tried to affect the 2016 election by paying hush money to a porn star, then falsified business records to cover it up.
Just 23% of those surveyed, disproportionately Trump supporters, say he will be exonerated.
“From everything I’ve read and listened to, there’s not been a law broken or anything,” said Jack Hunnicutt, 76, a real estate agent from Warner Robins, Georgia, who is a Republican and supports Trump. He called the trial a “farce.”
Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide
“I hope that he won’t” be convicted, Hunnicutt said in a follow-up phone interview, “but in New York, you can never tell.”
Never before has a former president faced criminal charges, and never before has a major party’s presumptive presidential nominee been prosecuted as Election Day loomed.
Trump supporters are split over whether a conviction is coming: 44% predict a guilty verdict on at least some counts, 43% a not-guilty verdict on all of them.
But supporters of President Joe Biden by an almost universal 86%-7% expect Trump to be convicted on at least some counts.
“It’s about time that he has gotten caught up and brought to trial,” said Beth Corliss, 77, a retired biomedical engineer from Tucson, Arizona. A political independent and Biden supporter, she said Trump had been involved in financial shenanigans before in his business dealings. “It’s finally coming out, and I’m glad it is.”
The poll of 1,000 registered voters by landline and cellphone April 30 to May 3 has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Overall, 15% expect Trump to be convicted on all 34 felony counts, 50% on some of them, and 23% on none of them.
The jury decides, but the public’s view will reverberate
Public opinion won’t determine the trial’s outcome, of course. That will depend on the judgment of 12 jurors who have been listening to testimony at Manhattan Criminal Court, with Trump sitting before them at the defendant’s table.
But the public’s assessment will affect the repercussions afterward, including whether Americans accept the jury’s judgment as just.
Trump has railed against the trial, claiming without evidence that the charges were engineered by Biden and accusing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg of political motives. Trump has blasted Judge Juan Merchan and been found in contempt of court for deriding witnesses after being warned not to do so.
Trump’s complaints have gotten some traction: Overall, those surveyed by 44%-39% say the trial hasn’t been fair. Independents split 37%-37% on the trial’s fairness. Among men, white people, Hispanic voters and seniors 65 and older, more call the trial unfair than fair.
That includes an overwhelming 85% of Trump supporters but just 11% of Biden supporters.
“It’s basically a sham,” said Devy Walta, 67, a Republican retiree and Trump supporter from Helena, Montana. “If they actually thought that they had a leg to stand on, they would have done this before he was trying to get reelected.”
Unfair in another way: Special treatment for Trump?
Some of those surveyed say the unfairness is to Trump’s benefit, not his peril.
“I think it’s fair that he’s being tried,” said Kaleema Muhammad, 57, of Tallahassee, Florida, a policy analyst for the state government. She is a Democrat who supports Biden. “But it’s not fair to the extent that if there were a gag order on anybody else and they violated it as often as he does, they would be in jail.”
Even those who expect a guilty verdict in the legal system aren’t sure how much effect it will have on the political campaign.
“It will only embolden his supporters even more because they will look upon it as a government taking advantage of Donald Trump,” said Stephen Dombrowski, 76, a Democratic retiree from Grand Island, New York. “If anything, they will be more concrete in their support. I don’t think he can lose either way.”
