The rate of inflation in the UK over the last three years has been the highest in a generation, peaking at 11.1% in October 2022.
This prompted an aggressive policy reaction from the Bank of England, which raised interest rates fourteen times to their current level of 5.25%. Inflation has dropped from this peak and price increases have seen a slowdown – and in his Spring Budget on 6 March, Jeremy Hunt expressed optimism that inflation will fall further in the coming months.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which released its economic forecasts shortly after Hunt’s Budget, expects inflation to average out at 2.2% in 2024. It is currently at 4%, according to the CPI figures released on 1 February.
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Some analysts now believe that the Bank of England could start cutting rates at its Monetary Policy Committee meeting in June. See our article on when the Bank of England’s MPC is next meeting.
Of course, any forecasts from analysts could change quickly if the data doesn’t play ball. The Bank of England will want to see prices come down further before taking any action – even if higher interest rates are starting to have a painful effect on UK economic growth and the labour market.
If you’re keeping a close eye on the rate of UK inflation and want to follow any upcoming CPI releases, here are are the dates you need to know.
Next UK inflation figures
In the UK, the main measure of inflation is the Consumer Price Index. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases this once a month. The first inflation reading of the year, covering January, was released on 14 February. These are the dates for the rest of 2024:
- 20 March (covering February)
- 17 April (covering March)
- 22 May (covering April)
- 19 June (covering May)
- 17 July (covering June)
- 14 August (covering July)
- 18 September (covering August)
- 16 October (covering September)
- 20 November (covering October)
- 18 December (covering November)
The final inflation reading for 2024 (covering December) will be released early in the new year on 15 January 2025.
What time is CPI released in the UK?
Each month, the ONS releases the latest CPI data at 07:00.
You can access the data by going on to the ONS website and clicking on its release calendar. All published and upcoming releases are listed here. The report you are looking for will be titled, “Consumer price inflation, UK”, followed by the month and year in question.
MoneyWeek regularly reports on the latest inflation data and what it means for you.
What is CPI and how is it calculated?
CPI is the main measure of inflation used in the UK. It tells us how much the cost of living is going up or down.
It is calculated using a basket of typical household goods and services – from eggs, flour and milk to hotel costs, vinyl records and airfryers. Yes, that’s right, vinyl records are back in the CPI shopping basket for the first time since 1992 after a recent resurgence in popularity.
The Bank of England keeps a close eye on CPI when setting interest rates. If inflation is too high, the Bank raises interest rates to slow consumer spending and cool the economy. This works in bringing prices down, because we all have less money to spend when our mortgage rates are higher and our debts are more expensive to repay.
Meanwhile, if inflation is too low, the Bank lowers interest rates so that we’ve got more disposable income to spend. Thanks to the laws of supply and demand, this pushes prices back up.
Is inflation going down?
Inflation has slow downed considerably from its peak, and has settled at 4% for the last two months. It is forecast to average out at 2.2% for 2024 as a whole, before dropping to 1.5% for the duration of 2025. That’s according to the latest analysis from the OBR.
The latest labour market data revealed that wage growth slowed again in the three months to January. This should help move the data in the right direction, as wage growth has been a big driver of inflation.
Falling energy prices will also help considerably. According to analysis from ING Economics, the 12.3% fall in the Ofgem energy price cap could even push inflation down as low as 1.9% in April and 1.4% in June.
