FILE – Emissions rise from the smokestacks at the Jeffrey Energy Center coal power plant as the suns sets, near Emmett, Kan., Sept. 18, 2021. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File)
(NewsNation) — Greenhouse gas emissions declined in 2023 even as the economy grew.
Emissions fell by about 1.9%, according to a preliminary analysis by the Rhodium Group, which tracks U.S. progress toward climate goals and produces yearly reports. It’s the first time since 2019 that a drop in emissions has been paired with economic growth.
“A relatively mild winter and declining generation from coal power plants drove down emissions in the power and buildings sectors,” Rhodium said in its report. “Transportation sector emissions rose by 1.6%, though fuel consumption still held below pre-pandemic levels, while increases in domestic oil and gas production led to a 1% increase in industrial emissions.”
While the emissions reduction shows progress in the fight against climate change, it falls short of U.S. goals. President Joe Biden has set out to achieve a carbon-neutral power sector by 2035 and a net-zero emissions economy by 2050.
Rhodium said it’s too early to tell if the Inflation Reduction Act or Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, commonly known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, will achieve their climate goals.
“A decline in economy-wide emissions is a step in the right direction, but that rate of decline needs to more than triple and sustain at that level every year from 2024 through 2030 in order to meet the US’s climate target under the Paris Agreement of a 50-52% reduction in emissions,” Rhodium said.
The Paris Agreement is an accord by several nations to cap carbon emissions and limit global temperature rise. Former President Donald Trump withdrew the United States, but Biden rejoined after he took office.
The Rhodium Group’s projection of a 1.9% decline in emissions was the largest drop since 2016, not counting the pandemic-related decline in 2020. Emissions output numbers for last year will be finalized by the Environmental Protection Agency in 2025.
The decline was driven by an 8% drop in the power sector and a 4% drop from residential and commercial buildings, Rhodium said. It attributed the power sector reduction to the use of less coal, which accounted for a record low 17% of power generation in 2023.
Natural gas and renewables are filling the gap.
“In fact, we estimate that the nuclear fleet generated more power than the coal fleet for only the second time in US history in 2023 — the other coming in 2020 during the pandemic,” Rhodium said.
There are some “ominous signs,” though.
“Natural gas generation grew more than twice as fast as renewable generation did, year-on-year. Though the solar sector was on track for another record year of installations and new utility-scale battery installations bested their full 2022 levels through just the first three quarters of 2023, installations of wind turbines appeared on track for perhaps just half of last year’s level and just a third of installation levels in 2021,” Rhodium said.
