Economy

Britain to outgrow Germany for years to come as eurozone growth engine stutters


Mr Cluse added that the UK will be boosted by “the recovery in real incomes amid declining inflation”.

Predictions from UBS chimes with the latest predictions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has the UK outgrowing Germany in almost every year until 2028.

The global watchdog also expects Britain’s growth to outpace the eurozone in four of the next five years.

Sanjay Raja, economist at Deutsche Bank, expects the surprise resilience of the UK economy this year will continue into 2024, keeping GDP from shrinking and allowing a firmer recovery to take hold in the second half of the year.

He said: “There are good reasons to be optimistic that we can dodge a recession.

“We will see a sustained period of real positive wage growth in the midst of rapidly falling inflation. That in and of itself will be a boon for households.”

In part, growth has been achieved thanks to falling energy prices, which have given households and businesses a boost as bills have come down.

The surprise jump in migration has also aided GDP, Mr Raja said, as more people means that more economic activity is taking place.

At the same time, the UK has proven surprisingly resilient to higher interest rates, said Mr Raja.

He said: “Household and corporate balance sheets are still very strong.

“It is not just the excess savings picture that gives us some confidence that households and corporates can weather the shocks and headwinds from tighter monetary and fiscal policy.

“It is the fact that debt ratios are still historically pretty low compared to the past couple of decades.”

By contrast, the eurozone is already thought to be in recession.



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