Fri, Dec 22 2023 7:51 AM EST
Sterling higher despite UK GDP decline with eyes on US inflation
The British pound advanced Friday despite a fresh revised reading of a 0.1% contraction in U.K. gross domestic product in the third quarter.
It comes as investors await key U.S. inflation data expected to show the lowest rate of price increases since late 2020.
Sterling was up 0.33% against the U.S. dollar at $1.273 at 12:25 p.m. in London, and 0.1% higher against the euro. The U.K. currency has been boosted in recent months by expectations that the Bank of England will not cut interest rates as far or fast as will the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank.
That narrative wobbled earlier this week, when U.K. inflation fell by more than expected to hit 3.9% in November.
— Jenni Reid
Fri, Dec 22 2023 6:30 AM EST
There’s been a ‘later shopping pattern’ this Christmas, says RBC
Richard Chamberlain of RBC discusses consumer trends this festive season, and explains how the cost of living crisis continues to affect retail spending.
Fri, Dec 22 2023 5:34 AM EST
Market too optimistic on Bank of England rate cuts, strategist says
Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet, discusses the downward revision to U.K. gross domestic product figures and pressures on the Bank of England.
Fri, Dec 22 2023 4:46 AM EST
French consumer confidence improves; UK retail sales pick up
Indicators released Friday showed small positive signs in two of Europe’s biggest economies, as French consumer sentiment rose while U.K. retail sales were better than expected.
French statistics agency Insee said household confidence gained one point, increasing for the third consecutive month despite remaining well below its long-term average.
People’s outlook on their financial situation remained the same as their opinion on their future savings capacity “improved significantly.”
In the U.K., the Office for National Statistics estimated retail sales volumes rose by 1.3% month on month in November, and revised its October reading to no growth from a 0.3% decline.
Economists polled by Reuters expected a more modest 0.4% rise in November.
However, volumes were down by 0.8% in the three months to November compared with the previous three months.
— Jenni Reid
Fri, Dec 22 2023 2:32 AM EST
UK economy worse than previously estimated in third quarter
The U.K. economy contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter, the Office for National Statistics said, revising down its previous estimate of no growth.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the reading to hold.
The economy showed no growth in the second quarter, the ONS added, also down from a previous estimate of a 0.2% increase.
“Overall, today’s release suggests the economy was a bit weaker than we previously thought in Q3 and the mildest of mild recession may have begun. Looking ahead, the latest activity surveys point to weak GDP growth in Q4 too,” Ashley Webb, U.K. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.
— Jenni Reid
Fri, Dec 22 2023 2:00 AM EST
Europe stocks head for lower open
European stock markets are set to open slightly lower Friday.
IG data shows the U.K.’s FTSE 100 down 13.9 points at 7,692, France’s CAC 40 down 5 points at 7,565, and Germany’s DAX down 9 points at 16,681. Italy’s MIB is set to slip 63.9 points to 30,423.
— Jenni Reid
Thu, Dec 21 2023 10:31 PM EST
Oil rebounds a day after Angola’s OPEC exit sent prices lower
Oil prices rebounded Friday, a day after Angola’s announcement of its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, sent prices lower .
Brent crude futures for January climbed 0.83 to trade at $80.05 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was up 0.88% at $74.54.
Angola announced Thursday it would leave OPEC, with the country’s oil minister saying the block no longer served the country’s interests, according to a Reuters report.
— Lim Hui Jie
Fri, Dec 22 2023 12:00 AM EST
CNBC Pro: Rates are likely past their peak. Here are some global growth stocks that Goldman Sachs likes
Interest rates appear to have peaked, and growth stocks are an area worth looking at right now, according to Goldman Sachs.
“As interest rates appear to have peaked, Pure Growth … offers exposure to duration while Stable Growers … is more defensive,” the investment bank wrote in a December note.
Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated there will be three cuts coming in 2024, ending a cycle of 11 hikes. Rate hikes have not usually been good for growth stocks.
Goldman did two stock screens for its so-called pure growth and stable grower categories.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Weizhen Tan
Thu, Dec 21 2023 11:59 PM EST
CNBC Pro: Citi updated its ‘highest conviction’ stock list for Europe — naming 4 stocks to beat the market
Thu, Dec 21 2023 2:29 PM EST
The time for the ‘Santa Claus Rally’ starts Friday
Wall Street will see if a “Santa Claus Rally” — which refers to the gains typical of the final five trading days of the year, and the first two of the new year — will materialize this holiday season. This year, the season commences Friday until Jan. 3.
Since 1969, the S&P 500 on average has gained 1.3% during this period, according to the Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. But the editor noted a failure of the Santa Claus Rally to materialize is historically a harbinger for poor stock performance.
“Failure to have a Santa Claus Rally tends to precede bear markets or times when stocks could be purchased at lower prices later in the year,” Hirsch wrote in a blog post. “Down SCRs were followed by flat years in 1994, 2005 and 2015, two nasty bear markets in 2000 and 2008 and a mild bear that ended in February 2016.”
“As Yale Hirsch’s now famous line states, ‘If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall,'” Hirsch added.
Yale Hirsch, who originated the term, was the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
— Sarah Min