Can the EU uphold its promises to support Ukraine ‘as long as it takes’?

Stay informed with free updates

Simply sign up to the War in Ukraine myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox.

Good morning. It’s EU leaders’ summit week here in Brussels, the last one of the year, and there are major questions about the future of the bloc’s support to Ukraine.

Today I walk you through that woeful state of affairs, while our man in the European parliament explains why the chamber’s traditional Father Christmas is one casualty of the Qatargate cash-for-access scandal.

Ukraine’s reckoning

It’s crunch time for Ukraine — and the EU’s credibility as a reliable, dependable, long-term supporter of Kyiv.

Context: Brussels promised in June to provide Ukraine with €50bn over four years to keep the war-torn country’s budget afloat. But since then, EU member states have squabbled over how that — and other financial requests the European Commission has bundled with it — should be funded.

Ukraine has warned that a failure by EU leaders to agree on the support package at a summit this week would imperil its macro-financial stability. In a sign of the acute danger, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is visiting Washington on Tuesday to plead for the approval of a similarly sized US package blocked in Congress.

Zelenskyy could end this week watching his two most important allies reject renewed financial aid.

The EU has two problems: how to pay for it, and Hungary. The other 26 states broadly agree on giving €50bn to Ukraine, but are divided over what else in the bloc’s common budget should get topped up, by how much, and how.

But even with a deal on that (the commission initially wanted €65.8bn in additional cash from member states; a counterproposal discussed yesterday proposed €26.8bn) Hungary has vowed to veto any agreement.

Viktor Orbán’s government has refused to accept an increase to the EU budget unless it gets access to funds that have been frozen because of Budapest’s rule of law breaches, and has called for a rethink of the EU’s entire support to Ukraine.

EU ambassadors negotiated yesterday from 9am to past 11pm. People briefed on the discussions said they were productive but large disagreements remained over the budget restructuring. Many more hours of argument are expected before the summit begins on Thursday.

A Swedish-Dutch statement endorsed by Germany, Belgium and six other countries said that “no other task is as urgent” and that any delay to funding for Ukraine “would be inexcusable”.

Hungarian officials claim other countries support their country’s position on Ukraine, but declined to name them. Brussels officials say the other 26 are fully behind Kyiv, and will find a way to deliver the necessary funds. Come Friday, we will know the truth.

“All the leaders are well aware of the situation. I think that what we have seen in the United States is also an increased pressure on the EU to deliver,” said a senior EU official involved in the negotiations. “We know how existential it is. And I think European leaders are responsible people, at least 26 [of them]. So I think they will stick to their commitments.”

Chart du jour: Eluding the cap

A “shadow fleet” of secretively run tankers has helped Russia avoid the oil price cap imposed by the G7. Flows of Russian oil to Europe have almost run dry, going instead to India, China and Turkey. But western officials acknowledge that almost none of the Russian crude going to the new buyers is selling at under $60 a barrel.

Christmas is cancelled

A year after the Qatargate scandal erupted, none of the suspects have been tried in connection with the alleged corruption of European parliamentarians.

But there is one punishment: Santa Claus will not be visiting parliament this year, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: Marc Tarabella, one of the suspects in the probe into unlawful influence by Morocco and Qatar, was the assembly’s Father Christmas. The Belgian MEP occasionally dressed up for the part and brought an actor impersonating Saint Nicholas to the corridors of power.

The Socialist lawmaker is among six people under investigation for allegedly taking payments to influence decision making, which he denies. Although back at work, he does not want to tour the building handing out sweets to backroom staff, as was his custom.

“You cannot imagine the number of staff members who regretted his absence this year,” said his spokesman.

Pier Antonio Panzeri, the former MEP who has admitted taking bribes and accused Tarabella of being part of his corrupt network, has played the role of Santa himself.

Surveillance footage recorded by investigators showed him handing over €50,000 in envelopes embossed with a Santa Claus to trade union boss Luca Visentini.

Visentini, who was arrested but later released without charges, had to step down as head of the International Trade Union Confederation. He said he transferred the money to ITUC’s solidarity fund to pay for flights to a conference.

Panzeri’s lawyer declined to comment.

What to watch today

1. EU foreign affairs ministers meet.

2. European parliament plenary sessions kicks off in Strasbourg.

3. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in Berlin.

Now read these