Even when a business is losing money, it’s possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. But the harsh reality is that very many loss making companies burn through all their cash and go bankrupt.
Given this risk, we thought we’d take a look at whether Quantum-Si (NASDAQ:QSI) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. For the purposes of this article, cash burn is the annual rate at which an unprofitable company spends cash to fund its growth; its negative free cash flow. We’ll start by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves in order to calculate its cash runway.
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Does Quantum-Si Have A Long Cash Runway?
A company’s cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. In September 2023, Quantum-Si had US$275m in cash, and was debt-free. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through US$102m. So it had a cash runway of about 2.7 years from September 2023. That’s decent, giving the company a couple years to develop its business. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.
How Is Quantum-Si’s Cash Burn Changing Over Time?
In our view, Quantum-Si doesn’t yet produce significant amounts of operating revenue, since it reported just US$682k in the last twelve months. Therefore, for the purposes of this analysis we’ll focus on how the cash burn is tracking. With the cash burn rate up 2.5% in the last year, it seems that the company is ratcheting up investment in the business over time. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but investors should be mindful of the fact that will shorten the cash runway. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.
Can Quantum-Si Raise More Cash Easily?
While its cash burn is only increasing slightly, Quantum-Si shareholders should still consider the potential need for further cash, down the track. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Many companies end up issuing new shares to fund future growth. We can compare a company’s cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year’s operations.
Quantum-Si has a market capitalisation of US$247m and burnt through US$102m last year, which is 41% of the company’s market value. That’s high expenditure relative to the value of the entire company, so if it does have to issue shares to fund more growth, that could end up really hurting shareholders returns (through significant dilution).
Is Quantum-Si’s Cash Burn A Worry?
On this analysis of Quantum-Si’s cash burn, we think its cash runway was reassuring, while its cash burn relative to its market cap has us a bit worried. While we’re the kind of investors who are always a bit concerned about the risks involved with cash burning companies, the metrics we have discussed in this article leave us relatively comfortable about Quantum-Si’s situation. On another note, we conducted an in-depth investigation of the company, and identified 4 warning signs for Quantum-Si (2 don’t sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course Quantum-Si may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
