On the eve of the long Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. (the FOREX will be running, but at a very slow pace), the dollar is regaining much of the ground it lost on Monday (it had stagnated yesterday, scoring +0.1% after much hesitation) and the ‘$ Index is up +0.4% at 104.00.
The Euro fell symmetrically by -0.3% to 1.0885, the Pound by -0.4% to 1.2490, but it was above all the Yen which devalued by -0.8% to 149.60 (it was the weakness of the Japanese currency which caught the eye on Wednesday, with no monetary measures to combat inflation on the horizon in the archipelago).
The evolution of the Dollar’s yield counted for zero, as bond markets were in a state of panic on Wednesday: this is quite logical – and classic – in the USA on the eve of the 4-day Thanksgiving ‘bridge’.
T-Bonds are completely frozen – and unchanged – at 4.418% (after a brief incursion towards 4.37%).
Also flat in Europe, where our OATs and Bunds are stagnating at 3.115% and 2.555%… and -1 basis point on Italian BTPs at 4.31%.
None of the numerous US figures published today caused the slightest stir: no impact on the FOREX, either at 2:30 or 4:00 p.m.
The Labor Department reports a -24,000 (to 209,000) drop in new jobless claims in the US in the week to November 13, which may be explained by strong hiring ahead of the ‘Thanksgiving’ sales.
The four-week moving average – more representative of the underlying trend – came in at 220,000 last week, an anecdotal drop of 750 on the previous week’s revised average.
The big surprise of the day – in raw data – came from the durable goods orders figure, which fell by 5.4% in October (a record drop since the Covid period).
But excluding aircraft orders, the figure was stable compared with September… so it’s a bit of a trompe l’oeil drop, hence the lacklustre reaction from Wall Street (+0.25%) and the bond markets.
The yield on Treasuries returned to equilibrium at 4.418% after a brief foray below 4.40%, a 2-month low.
U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated in November, but less sharply than expected, according to the final University of Michigan index published on Wednesday.
The final UMich index came in at 61.3, down from 63.8 in October, while the first estimate was 60.4 and economists were expecting around 61 (the 4th consecutive month of decline).
The component measuring consumer sentiment on current conditions deteriorated to 68.3 from 70.6 last month, while the expectations component fell by -2.5pts to 56.8 from 59.3 in October.
Inflation expectations have also risen again, with consumers estimating it at 4.5% this month, compared with +4.2% in October, a seven-month high.
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