1. Who wants into the EU?
Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. They form a cluster extending eastward from Croatia, the EU’s latest addition in 2013, all the way to Greece and Bulgaria, its poorest nation. The region is still blighted by the legacy effects of Yugoslavia’s bloody breakup: lingering ethnic enmities, economic dysfunction and global powers jostling for political influence.
The bloc expanded into former communist Europe in 2004 and that process that won’t be truly complete without the swathe of nations on the continent’s underbelly. Geography, history and strong economic ties — the EU is the region’s biggest investor and trade partner by far — support the argument for expansion, which could help to stabilize politics in those countries and would increase one of the world’s biggest trading blocs by 18 million people. Allowing them to join would also lift living standards in nations that have seen millions of citizens migrate to more affluent EU states in search of better lives.
3. How soon can they join?
There’s no target date. First they need to meet the bloc’s standards on democratic accountability, governance and economic resilience and to resolve thorny territorial disputes. It typically took a decade for other ex-communist states to prepare. Albania and North Macedonia started accession talks in July, joining Serbia and Montenegro in the process. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo have yet to become official candidates.
4. What are the biggest hurdles?
Serbia is in a standoff with its former province Kosovo, which declared independence unilaterally in 2008. Years of EU mediation between the wartime foes produced little progress. A solution could prompt five EU countries that don’t recognize Kosovo to join the bloc’s majority in accepting it as a sovereign state. The most dysfunctional country is Bosnia-Herzegovina. Its three main ethnic groups have a power-sharing arrangement, with the Serb bloc threatening at times to secede.
5. What’s the geopolitical backdrop?
Russia, China and Turkey are deepening their involvement in the region. Serbia maintains military neutrality while keeping close relations with traditional ally Russia which, along with China, has challenged Kosovo’s sovereignty and prevented it from joining the United Nations. China has stepped up investment in the Western Balkans and financing for local infrastructure projects. Three of the countries aspiring to EU membership — Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia — are members of the NATO western military alliance.
The war in Ukraine has added some impetus to the EU enlargement drive as the bloc’s leaders look for ways to protect its southeastern flank from an increasingly assertive Russia. But there’s been little concrete action. The UK’s tortuous departure from the EU and backsliding on democracy in Hungary and Poland have made some members reluctant to welcome new entrants. Bulgaria is blocking North Macedonia over issues of language and shared history.
7. What work needs to be done?
The six hopefuls must strengthen their economies and bring rules on taxes, environmental protection, intellectual property, food safety and energy up to EU norms. Their combined GDP is around $127 billion, less than half that of Romania. They suffer from weak rule of law, human rights, transparency and accountability. Corruption and organized crime are endemic. While the EU is investing in local infrastructure, entrenched interests in industries from energy to construction are holding back competition. Governments have spent decades propping up companies that they own or control, creating monopolies. On the other hand, the six countries have an abundance of qualified, low-cost labor that’s helped to attract foreign investment to the region.
8. How eager are the candidates?
Joining the EU is a priority for all of the region’s governments, though popular support for the idea has ebbed during years of waiting. Kosovars, Albanians and Montenegrins have tended to be most enthusiastic.
–With assistance from Jasmina Kuzmanovic.
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