In last month’s monetary policy meetings, the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve put policy on pause, and it looked as though interest rates had peaked. Since then, sticky inflation data and concerns about rising energy prices have complicated the picture. Will central banks press play this month?
Given the rapidly changing circumstances, it seems likely that the Fed and the BoE will take stock in the November meeting, leaving interest rates unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors see a near zero chance of another US hike next week, while market pricing implies only a small chance of further hikes in the UK.
Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers will set monetary policy on Wednesday. Analysts at Barclays expect the BoJ to replace yield curve control with a ‘duration policy’ in next week’s meeting but don’t anticipate rate hikes until April next year.
Monday 30 October
Euro area: Business climate; consumer, economic, services and industrial confidence index
Japan: Unemployment, industrial production, retail sales
UK: Nationwide HPI, BoE mortgage approvals, net mortgage lending, net consumer credit, M4 money supply
US: Dallas Fed Index
Tuesday 31 October
China: Manufacturing, non-manufacturing and services PMI
Euro area: Q3 GDP preliminary, inflation
Japan: BoJ interest rate decision, consumer confidence, construction orders, housing starts
UK: BRC shop price index
US: Q3 wages, FHFA HPI, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence
Wednesday 1 November
China: Manufacturing PMI
Japan: Manufacturing PMI, foreign bond investment
US: ADP employment survey, construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, Fed interest rate decision
Tuesday 2 November
UK: BoE interest rate decision
US: Unit labour costs, productivity, durable orders, factory inventories, factory orders
Friday 3 November
China: Services PMI
Euro area: Unemployment rate
US: Auto sales, hourly earnings, average workweek, manufacturing payrolls, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rates, ISM Services
