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As Israel prepares for an apparently inevitable ground invasion of Gaza, a flurry of western diplomats and politicians are arriving in Jerusalem. But visitors from the US and Europe have a complicated — and arguably contradictory — message. They want to express complete support for Israel in striking back against Hamas. But they are also urging the Israelis to act with restraint.
That was communicated by Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, on his visit to Tel Aviv on Thursday. A similar view will be pushed by Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission — on her visit to Israel on Friday.
In Brussels, there is some nervousness about the fact that von der Leyen has arrived in Israel just as that country’s government is urging more than 1mn Gazans to leave the north of the strip. The concern is that the European Commission president could look as if she is endorsing military actions that will cause mass civilian casualties — and that will swiftly be labelled as war crimes.
“We may be about to see massive ethnic cleansing,” says one EU diplomat. Another senior Brussels official says that the EU should already have lined up with the UN secretary-general’s calls for Israel to respect international humanitarian law.
But some in Brussels argue that it is much better to convey the EU position face to face with the Israelis — rather than communicating by posts on X, the social media platform.
More broadly, European officials say they are focusing on three main aspects of the conflict. First, the fighting itself. Second, reactions in the wider region. And third, the response outside the west. “Our fear is that we’ll pay a heavy price in the global south because of this conflict,” says one EU official.
But there is very little confidence in western capitals that Israel will listen to calls for restraint. “They think they are facing a second potential Holocaust and fighting for the survival of the state,” says the EU official. “They’re not going to listen to us.”
European diplomats have also been struck by how little interest the Israeli government has shown in prioritising the lives of the hostages held in Gaza — some of whom come from European countries.
The wider Middle Eastern region is also a key focus of US policy. After Israel, Blinken is visiting several other countries in the region including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar and Egypt. Western officials have been talking to their Egyptian counterparts about the possibility of Egypt opening its border with Gaza — to allow refugees to leave the territory. But the Egyptians are currently adamant that they will do no such thing. They argue that they are already hosting refugees fleeing other conflicts, such as the one in Sudan.
And they share widespread concerns that once Israel has forced the Palestinians out of Gaza, it will never let them back.
