The United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) faces its most important match in years (some might say ever) as it wraps up group-stage play in the World Cup. The American side meets Iran on Tuesday, and it’s make-or-break – the United States either wins or grabs a long flight home.
But while the magnitude of the match on the field is huge, the appetite in the World Cup odds market pales in comparison to last week’s riveting USMNT-England contest.
“Wagering isn’t close to what USA-England had, and I don’t reckon it will be by kickoff either,” BetMGM sports trader Seamus Magee said of the 2 p.m. ET clash, which can be seen on FOX and the FOX Sports App.
That said, the USMNT is getting the lion’s share of action as it looks to advance to the knockout stage.
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Watch as Nick breaks down what could limit the USMNT’s chances of advancing in the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
Win and You’re In
The United States opened the World Cup with a less-than-satisfying 1-1 draw against Wales. But to a degree, the USMNT made up for it with a 0-0 draw Friday against England.
That gives the U.S. two points entering Tuesday’s match. A victory for three more points will give the Americans five points in Group B and guarantee advancement; a tie or loss ends the team’s tournament. FOX Bet has the United States as a -105 favorite in the three-way betting market, with Iran a +250 underdog and Draw +210.
And betting is a landslide at this point, with 69% of tickets and 96% of money on the USMNT.
“It’s no surprise that our [bettors] love USA in this matchup,” FOX Bet trading operations senior manager Dylan Brossman said. “Geopolitical issues aside, the United States is favored to win and has the added motivation of needing a win. It’s win or go home, and American bettors do not expect to be disappointed.”
Iran is taking 22% of wagers, which translates to just 3% of the money. Draw is getting the other 9% of bets/ 1% of money at FOX Bet, where the match is being bet far differently than USA-England.
“The USA vs. England game had a much more balanced book, with only 41% of tickets and 23% of money backing the Red-White-and-Blue,” Brossman said.
The Sharp Side of Soccer
Public/recreational bettors are gladly putting their hard-earned cash on the USMNT. But those who make a living by betting on sports have a different opinion on where the value lies for this match.
“There’s definitely been some sharp money coming in on Iran, as USA’s price has gone from -120 to even money,” BetMGM’s Magee said.
BetMGM has Iran at +280 and Draw at +230. Magee noted that, much like any NFL game or other sports betting event, the overwhelming majority of wagers have yet to be placed (as of Monday afternoon)
“We’re still waiting for most of the action to come through,” he said. “I imagine we’ll see a lot of action [Tuesday] leading up to the game. We’re probably going to end up needing Iran by kickoff. The vast majority of handle on [straight bets] is in favor of the United States.”
Take a Chance on Advance
Pre-tournament, the World Cup odds options at most sportsbooks included a bevy of prop bets and futures bets. Among those markets, a bettor could wager on any specific team to advance out of the group stage and reach the knockout stage.
The USMNT was definitely a popular play in that market at BetMGM. If the Americans win Tuesday to advance, it’d be great for bettors and bad for the bookmakers. Yet the bookmakers – always looking ahead – would probably be OK absorbing that loss.
“We have huge liability on the United States to advance,” Magee said. “But it wouldn’t be the worst thing if the Americans get through. We’d see more money [wagered] on their round of 16 match.”
Sometimes, that’s how it works for oddsmakers. A loss for sportsbooks now – if the United States beats Iran – could lead to greater gains in the knockout stage. Everyone would be excited about the USMNT advancing, and far more people would want to engage in betting on their home country.
So let’s hope we all have some patriotic betting duty to perform when Tuesday’s match is over.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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