stock moves, earnings and Fed meeting

Oil prices surged more than $1, marking a fourth consecutive session of gains as weak U.S. shale output added to supply concerns from extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Here’s how prices fared Tuesday morning:

Prices have gained for three consecutive weeks, with both benchmarks reaching their highest since last year.

— Pia Singh

It’s a big week for central banks — both within the U.S. and abroad.

The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday. Traders are pricing in a 99% probability the Fed skips a rate hike when announcing policy on Wednesday, according to CMEGroup’s FedWatch tool, which gauges pricing in fed funds futures. The Fed will also offer economic forecasts on Wednesday.

The central banks of multiple other countries are also expected to announce policy decisions this week. Here’s a list of the countries scheduled to release decisions in the 36 hours following the Fed’s announcement expected at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, per Bespoke Investment Group:

• Brazil
• Indonesia
• Japan
• Norway
• South Africa
• Sweden
• Switzerland
• Taiwan
• Turkey
• The United Kingdom

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said investors around the globe “are on edge waiting to find out what their central banks are likely to do.”

— Alex Harring

Paul Murray, CEO of Life and Health Reinsurance at Swiss Re, discusses how current macroeconomic conditions are affecting the sector and shares his outlook for the life and health reinsurance industry.

Shares of Billerud soared more than 7% after Jefferies upgraded the Swedish paper and packaging company from “hold” to “buy.”

The investment bank said its sees “opportunity for Billerud to focus on value over volume, optimising its asset base, production mix and overall equipment effectiveness,” Reuters reported.

Tui shares were up more than 5% after the travel company confirmed expectations of a strong summer, with bookings “well ahead of [s]ummer 2022.” The company is “well positioned” to achieve its targets for 2023, Tui said in a trading update.

Sam Woods, deputy governor of the Bank of England and CEO of the Prudential Regulation Authority, discusses the British banking sector.

Shares of German materials manufacturer Kion were down 3.9% in morning trade after Invesco announced it would divest its stake in the group, Reuters reported.

Invesco placed 4.41 million of its shares in the group to sell, which corresponds to around 3% of the company’s shares in the group.

Kingfisher fell to the bottom of the Stoxx 600 index after the company cut its annual profit outlook.

Shares of the home improvement retailer were down 5%.

Shares of Ocado were up 3% in early trade after the food delivery service reaffirmed its full-year outlook. The company reported an increase in revenue growth for the third quarter, up 7.2% year on year to £569.6 million ($705 million).

Ocado Retail, a joint venture between Ocado Group and Marks & Spencer, said there had been a 1.5% increase in active customers to 961,000 at the end of the quarter.

— Hannah Ward-Glenton

European markets opened lower Tuesday, with investors looking ahead to the start of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day monetary policy meeting.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index opened 0.2% lower, with sectors spread across tentatively positive and negative territory. Health-care stocks made the biggest losses, down 0.7%, while travel and leisure stocks were up 0.2%.

— Hannah Ward-Glenton

The recent increase in oil prices could provide a boost to London’s prime office real estate market, according to Morgan Stanley.

The Wall Street bank explained the newly discovered correlation between the sectors and named the two stocks expected to benefit from the trend.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Ganesh Rao

Oil futures hit their highest levels in a year as expectations of a supply deficit continued to send prices to nearly $95 a barrel on Tuesday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained more than 1% and hit $92.43, its highest level since Nov. 4, while Brent crude futures reached $94.77, its highest level since Nov. 16 when it traded as high as $94.79.

Prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, and Reuters reports that prices are on track for their biggest quarterly increases since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2022.

Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia extended a combined supply cut of 1.3 million barrels per day to the end of the year.

The European market has been weighed down by a spike in corporate lending rates.

“Our economists expect the bulk of the interest rate headwinds to emerge over the next eighteen months or so,” HSBC analysts said in a Sept. 15 note.

CNBC Pro takes a look at the bank’s two screens of “the most and least vulnerable” stocks: one for “cash-rich” companies and the other for “high leverage” names.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Amala Balakrishner

The Federal Reserve is done hiking this year, even if the dot plot that’s set to release this week shows one more increase, according to Goldman Sachs.

“On November, we think that further labor market rebalancing, better news on inflation, and the likely upcoming Q4 growth pothole will convince more participants that the FOMC can forgo a final hike this year, as we think it ultimately will,” the firm’s chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote on Saturday.

“But we expect the dot plot to show a narrow 10-9 majority still penciling in one more hike, if only to preserve flexibility for now,” he added.

The dot plot shows where individual members expect to see rates trending over the next several years. The Fed concludes its two-day policy meeting Wednesday.

— Sarah Min

Public electric vehicle charging infrastructure remains “critical” in driving further EV adoption, said analysts at investment bank TD Cowen.

The bank concluded that the world will require a “massive and rapid” buildout of charging infrastructure and installation that it estimates would require a total U.S. investment of $104 billion through 2030.

Here are some areas that will take up the bulk of that opportunity, as well as stocks that could benefit, according to TD Cowen.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Weizhen Tan

European markets are expected to open in mixed territory Tuesday.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 14 points higher at 7,662, Germany’s DAX up 7 points at 15,274, France’s CAC 4 points lower at 7,266 and Italy’s FTSE MIB down 10 points at 28,598, according to data from IG.

Earnings are set to come from Kingfisher and Ocado Retail. Data releases include euro zone final inflation figures for August.

— Holly Ellyatt