Stock moves, data and earnings

Figures from Tuesday’s U.K. jobs report showing regular pay growth holding steady at 7.8% “are more dovish than they look at first glance,” ING developed markets economist James Smith said in a note.

“Drill down and if you strip out the public sector, private sector pay barely increased in level terms between June and July. And if we look at the alternative wage data which is based on payroll figures (or PAYE), that actually fell in level terms for the second consecutive month,” Smith said.

“One month doesn’t make a trend and the latest private-sector regular pay figure, which is the bit the Bank of England is focused on, was preceded by several upside surprises over recent months. But it comes alongside various signals that the labour market is cooling more noticeably.”

The report also revealed a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment, meaning the labor market data did not “scream a need to the [Bank of England] to keep hiking rates much further.”

ING still expects a September hike but believes that will be the last, Smith added.

— Jenni Reid

Paper and packaging businesses Smurfit Kappa and WestRock on Tuesday announced they had agreed to combine.

The companies will form Smurfit WestRock, run through a holding company incorporated and domiciled in Ireland, with global headquarters in Dublin, and North and South American operations headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. It will be led by CEO Tony Smurfit.

Dublin-based Smurfit Kappa said the deal was “expected to be high single digit accretive” to its earnings per share on a presynergy basis, and “in excess of 20% including run-rate synergies by the end of first full year following completion.”

Shareholders of U.S.-based WestRock will receive one Smurfit WestRock share and $5 cash, equivalent to $43.51 per share.

The merger is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2024, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval.

— Jenni Reid

The U.K. unemployment rate rose 0.5 percentage points to 4.3% in the May to June period, official figures showed Tuesday, in line with expectations.

Economic activity rose 0.1 percentage points, to 21.1%, driven by 16-24 year olds. The number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness hit another record high.

In news that will be closely watched by the Bank of England, annual growth in pay excluding bonuses remained steady at 7.8%, the highest on record.

“The tightness of the labour market continued to ease in July,” said Ashley Webb, U.K. economist at Capital Economics, in a note.

“But the further rise in wage growth will only add to the Bank of England’s unease and supports our view that the Bank will raise interest rates once more, from 5.25% currently to a peak of 5.50%, next week,”

— Jenni Reid

Apple shares fell sharply last week on reports that China is restricting government employees from using iPhones and other Apple devices for work purposes.

Itau BBA analyst Thiago Kapulskis, an Apple bear, said in a note to clients that China concerns were proving to be a catalyst that could bring down Apple’s “hard-to-understand valuation” to more reasonable levels.

However, Kapulskis said he was holding off on shorting the stock for now.

CNBC Pro subscribers can find out why.

— Ganesh Rao

Chip designer Arm is reportedly “getting close” to securing enough investor support to attain the fully diluted valuation of $54.5 billion it seeks in its initial public offering, Reuters reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

This means Arm will likely be able to price the IPO “at the top or above” the $47-to-$51-per-share range, the report said.

The sources said Arm is also discussing the possibility of raising the price range and seeking a valuation of more than $54.5 billion, in light of strong investor interest.

However, Arm will not offer more shares, as SoftBank wants to retain a 90.6% stake in Arm following the IPO, the sources said.

— Lim Hui Jie, Reuters

Tech investor Paul Meeks said he’s looking to buy into the weakness surrounding tech stocks — once the correction has run its course.

The S&P 500 has rallied hard for most of this year on the strength of tech stocks. But in August, the Wall Street index fell 1.8%, snapping a five-month winning streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell more than 2%.

He names nine tech stocks — including his favorite mega-cap U.S. tech stock — as well as some smaller, “contrarian” picks.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Weizhen Tan

Federal Reserve officials are growing less certain about the need for more interest rate hikes, marking a significant shift in their inflation-fighting policy, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is still likely to pass on an increase at its meeting next week while indicating that one more move is likely before the end of the year.

However, as inflation data has improved, the willingness of committee members to do too much to fight inflation as opposed to too little is beginning to shift, the report states. In recent statements, a number of officials say the balance of risks has shifted and they are now feeling less urgency to tighten.

Market pricing points to a 44.6% chance of a final rate hike at the November meeting, according to CME Group data.

—Jeff Cox

British bank HSBC has revealed a bucket list of “must see stocks,” in the U.K. regardless of how market conditions pan out over the rest of the year.

The stocks were selected based on factors such as price, growth prospects and value.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Amala Balakrishner

European markets are expected to open higher Tuesday.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 10 points higher at 7,512, Germany’s DAX up 20 points at 15,825, France’s CAC 18 points higher at 7,297 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 30 points at 28,551, according to data from IG.

Data releases include the ILO unemployment rate for July.

— Holly Ellyatt