People pass the Bank of England in London, Sept. 28, 2022. The Bank of England is expected to announce its biggest interest rate increase in more than three decades on Thursday, Nov. 3 as it seeks to beat back stubbornly high inflation fueled by Russia s invasion of Ukraine and the disastrous economic policies of former Prime Minister Liz Truss. AP
Following a regular meeting, the BoE is seen lifting borrowing costs by 0.75 percentage points to three percent, according to market consensus, which would be the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Some analysts, however, are predicting a rise of one percentage point, also a 33-year high.
The move would mirror aggressive rate-tightening by central banks worldwide as economies battle the highest prices in decades.
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a fourth consecutive hike of 0.75 percentage points, taking its benchmark lending rate to 3.75-4.0 percent.
While calling further interest rate increases “appropriate” to tamp down inflation, the Fed also opened the door to smaller hikes.
The BoE decision at 1200 GMT is set to add to a cost-of-living crisis for millions of Britons as hikes by central banks see retail lenders push up the rate of interest on their own loans.
Repayments on UK mortgages have surged in recent weeks also after the debt-fuelled budget of previous British prime minister Liz Truss spooked markets, forcing her to resign and triggering emergency buying of UK government bonds by the BoE.
Her successor Rishi Sunak has attempted to bring calm to markets by hinting at tax rises in a fresh budget on November 17, even if such a move further harms Britain’s economy.
“I think everyone knows we do face a challenging economic outlook and difficult decisions will need to be made,” Sunak, a former UK finance minister, told parliament on Wednesday.
British annual inflation stands above 10 percent, the highest level in 40 years, on soaring food prices and energy bills.
Inflation update
Alongside its rate call, the BoE will give its latest inflation and growth forecasts, with analysts indicating that the UK economy may already be in recession.
“The BoE is expected to hike its interest rate by no more than 75 basis points, on conviction that the Sunak government would opt for some fiscal austerity, and nothing too crazy to wreak havoc, again,” forecast Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya.
As the Covid-19 pandemic began in early 2020, the BoE slashed its key interest rate to a record-low 0.1 percent and also pumped massive sums of new cash into the economy.
The Bank of England started raising rates last December and another hike Thursday would be the eighth increase in a row.
Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, predicts that the BoE will raise its interest rate by one percentage point on Thursday and by the same amount in December.
“If we are right that domestic inflation will be sticky, it may mean that the Bank of England ultimately has to act more aggressively further ahead,” she added.
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