Why von der Leyen is banking on parliament choosing her over chaos

Good morning. A scoop to start: Donald Trump will immediately demand peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if he wins November’s US presidential election and has already made “well-founded plans”, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has claimed after private discussions with the Republican candidate, in a private letter seen by the Financial Times.

Today, I explain why Brussels has decided to withdraw its commissioners from ministerial meetings in Hungary in response to Orban’s diplomatic freelancing. But before that, I unpack Ursula von der Leyen’s key message to MEPs ahead of her confirmation vote this week.

Chaos theory

In two days, Ursula von der Leyen will take the floor in the European parliament seeking to convince at least 361 of its members to vote for her. Her main message will be simple: vote for me, or vote for chaos.

Context: Von der Leyen, who has run the European Commission since 2019, has been backed by the EU’s 27 leaders to carry on for another five years. She now needs parliament’s assent. If she loses, it would be the first time in history the parliament has rejected a commission president candidate.

On paper, she’s home and hosed. Her European People’s party, plus the Socialists and the liberal Renew, together hold 401 seats. But it’s a secret ballot, and the coalition’s MEPs lack the party discipline found in most national parliaments. Defections have historically been rife. Her 10 per cent buffer is considered undependable.

With expected external support from the Greens and potentially Italy’s hard-right, the smart money is on her making the threshold. Still, it’s nowhere near inevitable.

Von der Leyen and her campaign team have been conspicuously quiet in recent days, testament to the tense negotiations going on with individual lawmakers, and the lack of certainty that she has the numbers. Aides were still tweaking spreadsheets last night ahead of another day of cajoling and convincing.

Her message, delivered in person during hours and hours of meetings over the past two weeks, is that she’s the only option: Reject me and you’ll be voting for a constitutional crisis and policy paralysis. “Better the devil you know,” quips one supporter of questionable loyalty.

Political convention dictates that she only gets one shot. While there would be no legal impediment to the EU’s 27 leaders sending her back for a second vote, her shredded political clout in that scenario would make that unlikely. People close to von der Leyen say she would not make another attempt if she were rejected.

Of course, it’s smart for her would-be backers to suggest the vote will be tight — all the better to extract more political prizes in exchange for their support.

But by the same token, it’s pure spin for her to assert there’s no Plan B. It’s patently untrue that there’s nobody else with ambitions to become the EU’s most powerful official. The question is whether they would have a better shot at winning 361 votes.

If she loses on Thursday, an apoplectic EPP would cancel its collective summer plans and scramble to find an emergency fallback. The delicate geographical balance on other big jobs already agreed would be upset; trust between capitals and the parliament would be eviscerated.

“She has to win,” said a person involved in the whipping effort. “Otherwise we’re fucked.”

Chart du jour: Holding steady

European Central Bank officials are wary of signalling more interest rate cuts, as higher government spending in France could cause inflation to fall slower than expected.

Snubbed

Brussels will not send commissioners to informal council meetings held in Hungary for the rest of this year, in a symbolic snub to Viktor Orbán’s government following his freelance diplomatic tour to Russia, China and Mar-a-Lago.

Context: Hungarian premier Orbán, the EU’s most pro-Russian leader, inherited the EU’s rotating council presidency on July 1. Wielding the largely ceremonial post, he then visited Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and former US president Donald Trump in a whirlwind fortnight, pushing a plan to bring an immediate ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

Official EU policy is not to hold talks about Ukraine without Ukraine. Kyiv has rejected an immediate ceasefire, given it would leave Russia controlling vast swaths of its eastern territory.

That’s why Orbán’s trips caused such consternation among his allies, many of whom saw it as him abusing the presidency. The EU’s legal service said it broke the bloc’s governing treaties.

Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden had already said they would boycott ministerial meetings in Hungary, which all presidency holders organise during their six-months tenure.

The European Commission last night decided to follow suit.

“In light of recent developments marking the start of the Hungarian Presidency, the President has decided that [the commission] will be represented at senior civil servant level only during informal meetings of the Council,” spokesman Eric Mamer said, adding that a traditional group visit of all commissioners to Hungary “will not take place”.

As bureaucratic punishments go, it’s about as strong as Brussels can muster without straying into the legal quagmire of financial measures.

A Hungarian official said last night they found the decision “petty”.

What to watch today

1. EU finance ministers meet.

2. Informal meeting of EU energy ministers in Budapest.

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