Economy

Sir Keir Starmer is about to discover just how lucky he really is


These extra costs help explain why the tax burden has risen to record peacetime levels even as public services are squeezed to the point where they no longer operate properly.

They thought zero interest rates would last forever, and spent accordingly. How stupid can you get?

Debt servicing costs are admittedly very unlikely to return to the much lower levels that existed three years ago, but they should abate to some degree at least.

That said, Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts are already based on growth accelerating from next year onwards, and on debt interest payments falling from around 4pc to 3pc of GDP; yet even so, the Government still struggles to stay within its fiscal rules.

To get out of jail free Labour needs higher growth still or a sustained average of 2pc or more over the years ahead. Fortunately, this is not altogether implausible even with much lower levels of net immigration.

One thing that will undoubtedly help is the application of artificial intelligence. It’s impossible to know how much this might boost productivity, but my guess is that it will be by a lot. Even if it’s by no more than the information technology revolution of the 1990s and Noughties, it still promises to make a big difference.

Forget the worst economic inheritance since the war. By luck rather than design, Labour may be about to fall on its feet.



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